How reliable are RNW's earnings forecasts for Q4 2025?

**ReNew Energy Global's (RNW) earnings forecasts for Q4 2025 are somewhat uncertain**, given the company's historical performance and the current market conditions. Here's an analysis to support this view: 1. **Historical Performance**: RNW has experienced fluctuations in its financial results, as evidenced by the break-even earnings per share (EPS) reported for Q1 2024, which was a significant improvement from the previous quarter's loss. However, the company has missed revenue estimates in the past, such as in Q2 2024, where revenue fell short of expectations by 13.23%. 2. **Current Market Conditions**: The company's guidance for FY25 indicates a cautious outlook, with expectations of completing between 1,900 to 2,400 MWs by the end of the fiscal year, and adjusted EBITDA and cash flow to equity guidance that are subject to weather conditions similar to FY24. This suggests that external factors, such as weather and environmental conditions, can significantly impact RNW's financial performance. 3. **Industry Trends**: The renewable energy sector, while growing, is also highly competitive and influenced by government policies and regulatory changes, which can affect RNW's business and financial outcomes. 4. **Financial Ratios**: RNW has a significant debt-to-equity ratio of 3.91, which indicates a higher reliance on debt financing. This can lead to increased financial risk and may impact the company's ability to meet its financial obligations and sustain its operations during less favorable conditions. In conclusion, while RNW has shown resilience and growth potential in the renewable energy sector, the company's earnings forecasts for Q4 2025 should be approached with caution due to the inherent uncertainties in the industry and the potential impact of external factors on its financial performance. Investors should consider these factors along with the company's historical performance and market conditions when evaluating the reliability of RNW's earnings forecasts for the period.