How reliable are PM's earnings forecasts?

Philip Morris' (PM) earnings forecasts for the upcoming quarter are generally reliable, as indicated by the following points: 1. **Consensus Estimate Alignment**: The estimated EPS for PM in the fiscal quarter ending March 31, 2025, is $1.61, which aligns closely with the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.51. This suggests that analysts have a relatively optimistic view of the company's earnings for the period. 2. **Historical Performance**: PM has a track record of surpassing consensus EPS estimates four times over the last four quarters. This indicates a degree of reliability in the company's earnings forecasts. 3. **Recent Performance**: In the most recent quarter, PM exceeded earnings expectations with a reported EPS of $1.55, which was higher than the estimated $1.50. This represents a positive surprise, further enhancing the reliability of the company's earnings forecasts. 4. **Market Expectations**: Analysts have not revised their estimates downward, indicating a general confidence in PM's performance. The lack of significant revisions suggests that the consensus estimate is stable and reliable. 5. **Company's Outlook**: PM has set an optimistic outlook for 2025, projecting an adjusted EPS between $7.04 and $7.17, which represents an increase of up to 9.1%. This suggests that the company's management is confident in the company's future earnings potential. In conclusion, while there is always some degree of uncertainty in financial forecasting, the available data points to PM's earnings forecasts being reliable. The company's historical performance, recent positive surprise, and optimistic outlook all contribute to this assessment.