How reliable are NVCR's EPS forecasts historically?

**NovoCure's (NVCR) EPS forecasts have shown variability and missed expectations in the past**, which affects the reliability of these forecasts. Here's an analysis based on historical data: 1. **Consistency with Estimates**: NovoCure's EPS has not consistently met market expectations. For instance, in Q4 2024, the company reported an EPS loss of $0.61, which was worse than the estimated $0.34 loss. This indicates a pattern of EPS misses. 2. **Historical Performance**: NovoCure has beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time over the last two years, suggesting that predictions are not consistently accurate. This is further highlighted by misses in previous quarters, such as Q2 2024, where the company reported an EPS loss of $0.50 instead of the estimated -$0.40. 3. **Analyst Adjustments**: Analysts have adjusted their EPS estimates for NovoCure, with recent revisions showing a more optimistic outlook. For example, Wedbush raised its FY2024 EPS estimate to ($1.26), up from ($1.40), and forecasted Q4 2024 EPS at ($0.31). Similarly, HC Wainwright boosted its FY2024 EPS estimate to ($1.27), up from ($1.35), with a "Buy" rating. 4. **Market Sentiment and Outlook**: Despite past misses, there is optimism regarding NovoCure's future earnings. Analysts are forecasting improved EPS for FY2025 and beyond, indicating a potential recovery or improvement in profitability. In conclusion, while NovoCure's EPS forecasts have not been consistently reliable in meeting market expectations due to past misses, there are signs of optimism and adjustments by analysts that suggest a potential for improvement in the future.