How reliable are AIG's earnings forecasts?

**American International Group (AIG) is expected to report earnings per share (EPS) of $1.26, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of approximately 29.6%.** This estimate is based on the consensus of analysts who have revisited their forecasts following AIG's last earnings release. The expected revenue for the quarter is $6.77 billion, indicating a substantial year-over-year decline of about 46.8%. 1. **Analyst Expectations and Revisions**: Analysts have not been optimistic about AIG's near-term performance, as evidenced by the significant expected decline in EPS and revenues compared to the previous year. The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, which may indicate a general agreement on the expected outcome. |code|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Income YoY|Total Revenue YoY|Diluted EPS YoY|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |AIG|AIG.N|American|2024 Q1|1939.0804597701149|14.512017479970869|5700|169| |AIG|AIG.N|American|2024 Q2|-329.68657599053813|-11.78052716514255|-393.59605911330056|169| |AIG|AIG.N|American|2024 Q3|-83.36366945759009|-7.100591715976331|-74.73309608540926|169| |AIG|AIG.N|American|2024 Q4|290.4862579281184|9.975482684646032|1091.6666666666667|169| |code|Ticker|Name|Date|Total Revenue|Net Income|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |AIG|AIG.N|American|2024 Q1|1.2578E10|1.6E9|169| |AIG|AIG.N|American|2024 Q2|6.56E9|-3.884E9|169| |AIG|AIG.N|American|2024 Q3|6.751E9|4.57E8|169| |AIG|AIG.N|American|2024 Q4|7.177E9|9.01E8|169| |code|Ticker|Name|Date|Diluted EPS YoY|Diluted EPS|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |AIG|AIG.N|American|2024 Q1|5700|1.74|169| |AIG|AIG.N|American|2024 Q2|-393.59605911330056|-5.96|169| |AIG|AIG.N|American|2024 Q3|-74.73309608540926|0.71|169| |AIG|AIG.N|American|2024 Q4|1091.6666666666667|1.43|169| 2. **Historical Performance vs. Expectations**: AIG has surpassed Wall Street’s bottom-line estimates three times in the past four quarters but has fallen short of the mark once. The company’s adjusted EPS for the most recent quarter dropped by 23.6% year-over-year, which may influence the current expectations. 3. **Market Sentiment and Potential Surprises**: Despite the expected decline in earnings, AIG’s stock has gained nearly 11% over the past 52 weeks, indicating a degree of market confidence or anticipation of a positive surprise. The company’s revenue surprise for the last reported quarter was positive, with an unexpected $437 million, which could be a sign of underlying business strength. |code|Ticker|Name|Date|Revenue Surprise|EPS Surprise|Net Income|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |AIG|AIG.N|American|2024 Q1|1.758E9|0.12|1.6E9|169| |AIG|AIG.N|American|2024 Q2|1.8E8|-0.14|-3.884E9|169| |AIG|AIG.N|American|2024 Q3|6.1E7|0.13|4.57E8|169| |AIG|AIG.N|American|2024 Q4|4.37E8|0.07|9.01E8|169| 4. **Strategic Considerations and Future Outlook**: AIG's recent strategic moves, such as the adverse development cover agreement with Enstar, suggest a proactive approach to managing risks and maintaining financial stability. These strategic actions could potentially positively influence future earnings and surprise expectations. In conclusion, while AIG's earnings forecasts reflect a challenging comparative period, the company's historical performance and strategic initiatives provide some basis for optimism. The reliability of these forecasts is mixed, with expectations of a significant decline in earnings but a positive revenue surprise in the recent past. Investors should monitor AIG's strategic execution and any changes in market conditions that could impact the company's financial performance.