Is PARAA's Q1 2025 forecast achievable?

**Paramount Global's Q1 2025 forecast is challenging but achievable with cautious optimism**. Here's a detailed analysis: 1. **Current Financial Performance and Trends**: - Paramount Global's stock closed at $10.86 on April 7, 2025. - The company's diluted EPS as of December 31, 2024, was not available, but the last change reported was a decline of 1.9%. - Total revenue for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, showed a year-over-year growth of 4.53%, reaching $7.98 billion. |code|Ticker|Name|Date|Total Revenue YoY|Diluted EPS YoY|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |PARA|PARA.O|Paramount Global|2024 Q2|-10.543592436974789|-1591.6666666666665|185| |PARA|PARA.O|Paramount Global|2024 Q3|-5.635777372774429|-100|185| |PARA|PARA.O|Paramount Global|2024 Q4|4.529981670594396||185| 2. **Analyst Opinions and Forecasts**: - UBS maintains a Sell rating with a target price of $11.00, indicating a potential upside from the current price. - Seaport Res Ptn has a more optimistic view, increasing its EPS estimate to $0.78 for Q1 2025, compared to the previous forecast of $0.56. - Barrington Research, however, is more cautious, lowering its EPS estimate to $0.28, down from $0.51. - The consensus estimate for Q1 2025 earnings is $1.77 per share. 3. **Market Conditions and Challenges**: - The company faces challenges, including declining TV affiliate numbers and challenging EBITDA comparisons due to the previous year’s Super Bowl revenue. - EBITDA is expected to fall by approximately 34% to around $654 million, which is closer to the consensus estimate of $668 million. - The company's financial health score is rated as 'FAIR', with strong metrics in relative value and price momentum. 4. **Potential for Improvement**: - Direct-to-consumer (DTC) EBITDA is showing signs of improvement, with a forecasted loss of $133 million compared to a $286 million loss a year ago. - Free cash flow (FCF) for the quarter is expected to be $69 million, although this is a significant drop from the $209 million reported in the previous year. In conclusion, while Paramount Global faces headwinds, the company's financial performance, analyst opinions, and potential for improvement suggest that achieving the Q1 2025 forecast is possible with careful management and consideration of the identified challenges.