Is ONC's Q1 2025 earnings forecast a good long-term investment signal?

**ONC's Q1 2025 earnings forecast does not provide a strong long-term investment signal**. Here's why: 1. **Earnings Projection**: The estimated EPS for Q1 2025 is -$0.74, which suggests a loss for the period. This is a red flag for investors looking for positive earnings growth. 2. **Revenue Projection**: The estimated revenue for Q1 2025 is $1.1 billion. While this indicates a certain level of sales, it is important to consider the context of the industry and ONC's historical performance to assess the significance of this figure. 3. **Recent Performance**: Biogen's recent performance has been mixed. The company has shown an increase in earnings from Q4 to Q1, but with a decrease in sales between the same quarters. This suggests that while there may be some growth in earnings, it is occurring alongside a decline in revenue. 4. **Analyst Estimates**: Leerink Partners has issued more optimistic estimates, with an EPS of $3.84 for Q1 2025. This discrepancy between the company's internal projections and analyst estimates could be indicative of market uncertainty or specific company-specific factors that are not currently reflected in the financial forecasts. 5. **Market Sentiment**: The bearish price trend for BTMD (which may be reflective of broader market sentiment for ONC/BIIB) has been ongoing for 86 days, with a continuation probability of only 15%. This suggests that while there is some potential for a bullish swing, the current trend is largely bearish. 6. **Support and Resistance Levels**: The stock is currently positioned between narrow support and wide support levels, as well as between narrow and wide resistance levels. This indicates a potential for price swings, but again, the current trend is not strongly indicative of a bullish or bearish outlook. 7. **Forecast Price**: The price forecast for BTMD (which we can assume is relevant for ONC's stock price) suggests a general upward trend, with a mean forecast price of $3.33 over the next few days. However, the forecast also indicates a significant range of possible outcomes, from $2.98 to $4.52, which limits the reliability of this short-term forecast as a long-term investment signal. In conclusion, while there are some positive indicators in the form of potential revenue and slight price trend forecasts, the overall picture for ONC's Q1 2025 earnings forecast does not provide a strong or reliable long-term investment signal. Investors should exercise caution and consider these factors alongside other fundamental and technical analyses before making investment decisions.