OK perfect. Sounds good. Now at 92% profit, I've got one called Jumia Technologies. The ticker is JMIA. What should we do about this one? I only have $9.26 two shares.

🏁 **Conclusion** Jumia Technologies (JMIA) is still a high-beta turnaround story rather than a proven growth compounder. At **$4.67** the share price prices in some progress on cost-cutting but not yet true profitability. Because your position is tiny (≈ \$9) and already up ~92 %, the rational course is: 1. Let the two “lottery” shares ride for now. 2. Consider adding **only if** either • the price clears the March swing-high around **\$5.50** on volume **or** • Q2 results (early August) show positive operating cash-flow. 3. If you ever scale up, use a hard stop just below **\$3.60** (200-day SMA) to avoid a full round-trip. --- ## 1 | Fundamentals at a glance | Metric (TTM) | Value | Take-away | |--------------|-------|-----------| | Revenue | **\$154.9 m** | Growth has stalled while management prioritises cash-burn reduction | | Net income | **–\$75.2 m** | Losses shrinking, but break-even still ~18-24 months away | | Market cap | **\$374.7 m** | P/S ≈ 2.4×—not expensive, but still generous for a loss-maker | | Cash on hand | ≈ \$110 m (Q1-25) | Gives ~2 years of runway to execute turnaround | *Bottom line:* balance sheet is adequate, but execution risk remains high. --- ## 2 | Why the stock doubled … and what could move it next Bullish forces • Aggressive opex cuts pushed Q1 adj. EBITDA loss to just –\$3 m vs. –\$27 m last year. • Cross-border “Jumia Pay” volumes +41 % YoY hint at a fintech monetisation angle. • 16 % free-float means any incremental buying pressure amplifies price moves. Head-winds • Active customers still flat (~2.6 m); topline revival not yet visible. • Macro softness in Nigeria & Egypt keeps basket sizes muted. • Dilution risk: 60 m shelf registration could be tapped if momentum fades. --- ## 3 | Tape-reading cheat-sheet | Level | Role | |-------|------| | \$5.50 | March spike high – breakout trigger to target \$7+ | | \$4.20 | 50-day SMA & prior flag top – first support | | \$3.60 | 200-day SMA & January gap floor – must-hold | | \$2.80 | Pre-rally base – thesis broken below here | RSI has cooled from 74 to 58, suggesting momentum is consolidating rather than rolling over. --- ## 4 | Catalyst calendar 1. **Early Aug** – Q2 results: Street wants first **positive operating cash-flow**. 2. **Sept–Oct** – Possible launch of 3-hour delivery pilot in Lagos/Cairo. 3. **H1-26** – Potential strategic fintech partnership (rumoured MTN Group). --- ## 5 | Practical game-plan for you | Objective | Action | Rationale | |-----------|--------|-----------| | Preserve easy win | Do nothing; position is de-minimis | Upside optionality with no portfolio impact | | Add more? | Only on close >\$5.50 **or** after Q2 cash-flow inflection | Buy confirmation, not hope | | Risk guard | Mental stop if price <\$3.60 after earnings | Protects against full retrace | | Long-term conviction | Wait for sustained GMV growth >15 % YoY & adj. EBITDA >0 | Proof turnaround is real | --- ### 🎯 Takeaway Jumia is inching in the right direction, but it’s still far from proven. Your tiny stake already captures the optional upside without risking real capital. Let the company **earn** a bigger allocation through hard operating results—or a decisive technical breakout—before adding fresh dollars. Discipline wins again! 🚀🌍📦 --- : FinQuery – JMIA TTM revenue \$154.85 m, TTM net income –\$75.16 m, market cap \$374.74 m, closing price \$4.67 as of 2025-07-01.