Will oil majors raise dividends again this year?

**Oil majors are likely to maintain or potentially increase dividends this year**, considering their historical dividend policies, payout ratios, and recent financial performance. Here's a detailed analysis to support this conclusion: 1. **Dividend Yield and Payout Ratios**: The dividend yields for the major oil companies—Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Shell (SHEL), TotalEnergies (TTE), and Conocophillips (COP)—range from 3.23% to 5.93%. While Chevron's payout ratio is high at 85.58%, TotalEnergies' is even higher at 62.9%. These ratios, although they suggest that a significant portion of earnings is distributed as dividends, are not uncommon for companies with stable earnings and a history of dividend payments. The fact that all five companies have a continuous dividend duration of at least 20 years indicates a commitment to regular dividend payments. |code|Ticker|Name|Date|Payout Ratio|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---| |COP|COP.N|Conocophillips|20240811|6.299645072056529|169| |TTE|TTE.N|TotalEnergies|20240811|5.096763801660603|169| |CVX|CVX.N|Chevron|20240811|10.03225592231589|169| |SHEL|SHEL.N|Shell|20240811|15.508776917582646|169| |XOM|XOM.N|Exxon Mobil|20240811|7.994209137472698|169| |COP|COP.N|Conocophillips|20240812|5.70563387419512|169| |TTE|TTE.N|TotalEnergies|20240812|5.096763801660603|169| |CVX|CVX.N|Chevron|20240812|10.03225592231589|169| |SHEL|SHEL.N|Shell|20240812|15.508776917582646|169| |XOM|XOM.N|Exxon Mobil|20240812|7.994209137472698|169| |code|Ticker|Name|Date|Dividend Yield (TTM)|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---| |COP|COP.N|Conocophillips|20240812|3.720306280105426|169| |TTE|TTE.N|TotalEnergies|20240812|5.000530684850283|169| |CVX|CVX.N|Chevron|20240812|4.408565025513722|169| |SHEL|SHEL.N|Shell|20240812|2.9017384700359017|169| |XOM|XOM.N|Exxon Mobil|20240812|2.819727731092437|169| |COP|COP.N|Conocophillips|20240813|3.778339486800812|169| |TTE|TTE.N|TotalEnergies|20240813|4.9886986098787345|169| |CVX|CVX.N|Chevron|20240813|4.435172389871661|169| |SHEL|SHEL.N|Shell|20240813|2.906554633471646|169| |XOM|XOM.N|Exxon Mobil|20240813|2.847001527235703|169| 2. **Dividend Growth and Stability**: Chevron has increased its dividends for 38 consecutive years, and TotalEnergies has proposed a dividend of €3.22 per share for fiscal year 2024, a 7% increase. This track record of consistent dividend growth is a positive indicator for future dividend potential. 3. **Financial Performance and Dividend Policy**: Despite challenging market conditions, Exxon Mobil reported earnings of $7.1 billion and cash flow from operations of $11.5 billion in Q2 2025. Its ability to generate cash and maintain a robust net-debt-to-capital ratio of 8% suggests a strong financial position that supports dividend payments. Similarly, Chevron's record $27 billion in cash distributed to shareholders in 2024 and its expectation to grow free cash flow in 2025 indicate a strong capacity to sustain and potentially increase dividends. 4. **Strategic Moves and Investor Returns**: Exxon Mobil's buybacks and Chevron's repurchase program, along with their commitment to shareholder returns, underscore a focus on maximizing returns to investors, which often includes dividend increases. 5. **Market Conditions and Future Outlook**: The oil sector's recent performance, including Exxon Mobil's production records and Chevron's production growth, suggests that these companies are not only surviving but also thriving in the current market. This strong operational performance provides a solid foundation for maintaining or increasing dividend payments. In conclusion, while there is no formal dividend policy indicating a guarantee of dividend increases, the historical practices, current financial health, and strategic focus on shareholder returns strongly suggest that oil majors are likely to raise dividends again this year. However, the decision to increase dividends will ultimately depend on each company's specific financial circumstances and market conditions.