Will natural gas prices rally more than 10% next month?

**Natural gas prices are unlikely to rally by more than 10% next month.** Here's why: 1. **Current Market Conditions**: Natural gas prices have been under pressure due to an inventory overhang, despite summer temperatures boosting demand. This suggests that the market is not experiencing a shortage that would typically drive prices up. 2. **LNG Infrastructure Growth**: The growth in liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure is expected to increase global growth avenues for natural gas. However, this growth is gradual and may not lead to an immediate price surge. 3. **Demand Outlook**: While global natural gas demand is expected to grow, particularly in emerging markets and developing economies, this growth is not expected to accelerate significantly in the short term. The IEA's latest report forecasts a modest increase in demand growth in 2026, not a substantial surge that would justify a 10% price rally in such a short period. 4. **Supply Dynamics**: Natural gas production in the United States has been rising, with significant increases coming from shale formations. This increased supply, coupled with higher-than-expected storage builds, suggests that the market is not experiencing a supply shortage that would typically lead to price rallies. 5. **Price Movements**: Recent price movements indicate that natural gas prices have been volatile but do not show a strong upward trend that would support a 10% rally in the near term. For example, prices have rebounded after a three-day streak of losses, but this was due to a smaller-than-expected storage build rather than a sudden increase in demand. In conclusion, while there may be some seasonal fluctuations in natural gas prices, the current market conditions and forecasts do not strongly support a more than 10% price rally in the immediate future.