Is MU still undervalued?

**Bottom-line: Micron (MU) looks fairly priced—maybe even a bit rich—after its blistering AI-driven rally, so “undervalued” is a stretch for most investors today.** 📈🤔 --- ### 1. What the numbers say Micron’s current multiples are 30.82× P/E, 6.72× P/S, and 4.86× P/B . |market_code|code|Ticker|Name|Date|P/E(TTM)|P/S|Price to Book Ratio| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |185|MU|MU.O|Micron Technology|20241104|-73.289404|4.498793753847318|2.499222109854867| |185|MU|MU.O|Micron Technology|20241105|-75.998223|4.66507178898411|2.5915948134138396| |185|MU|MU.O|Micron Technology|20241106|-80.565753|4.945444858869021|2.7473509146276394| |185|MU|MU.O|Micron Technology|20241107|-81.704033|5.015317011931822|2.7861671038891225| |185|MU|MU.O|Micron Technology|20241108|-80.616183|4.948540460586994|2.7490706192151735| |185|MU|MU.O|Micron Technology|20241111|-78.274783|4.804816095109713|2.6692271919368062| |185|MU|MU.O|Micron Technology|20241112|-78.274783|4.60360198344152|2.557446393747092| |185|MU|MU.O|Micron Technology|20241113|-78.274783|4.418750337996894|2.4547554626629147| |185|MU|MU.O|Micron Technology|20241114|-78.274783|4.386025405549759|2.4365757284518406| |185|MU|MU.O|Micron Technology|20241115|-69.406283|4.260432421563459|2.3668048566147437| • Those figures sit **above** the semiconductor industry average of 36.1× P/E and peer average of 64.3× P/E, implying the stock is *not* trading at a discount versus its group . • In fact, SimplyWallSt pegs fair value at $200—about 10-15 % below the recent $223-236 close—labeling MU “9.7 % Overvalued” in their model . • Even so, the stock still trades at a **discount to many high-growth peers** (e.g., AMD 148.58×, NVIDIA not shown but >100×) . |market_code|code|Ticker|Name|Date|P/E(TTM)|P/S|Price to Book Ratio| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |185|NVDA|NVDA.O|Nvidia|20241104|62.902078|27.430566768312747|57.384433516171754| |185|AAPL|AAPL.O|Apple|20241104|35.801227|8.58200382121805|58.92649454310799| |185|AMZN|AMZN.O|Amazon.com|20241104|41.28156|3.4297752642011745|7.943742664107952| |185|MU|MU.O|Micron Technology|20241104|145.20464|4.498793753847318|2.499222109854867| |185|NVDA|NVDA.O|Nvidia|20241105|64.686731|28.2088246714784|59.012540192926046| |185|AAPL|AAPL.O|Apple|20241105|36.033441|8.637668365619446|59.30870323705005| |185|AMZN|AMZN.O|Amazon.com|20241105|42.065948|3.49494414755413|8.094681078197652| |185|MU|MU.O|Micron Technology|20241105|150.571488|4.66507178898411|2.5915948134138396| |185|NVDA|NVDA.O|Nvidia|20241106|67.3221|29.35806561656758|61.41673917155288| |185|AAPL|AAPL.O|Apple|20241106|35.915721|8.609449534082627|59.114944663037754| --- ### 2. Momentum is hot, but it’s getting frothy • Shares just notched all-time highs at $234.11, up 125 % YoY and 177 % in six months . • The 1-month return is 19.1 %, and total shareholder return is ~121 % over the past year . • Such surging optimism often precedes short-term volatility—investors should be ready for swings. 🚀⚠️ --- ### 3. Street sentiment: still bullish, but targets are drifting lower • Consensus rating remains “Buy,” and the average 12-month target is $201.84 . • Recent target bumps (e.g., Citi to $275, Mizuho to $265) are impressive, yet the **average** has actually fallen as more analysts update their models after the run-up . • UBS, Barclays, and others still see upside, but even their latest highs cluster around $245-275, suggesting a 5-15 % ceiling from today’s price. 🎯 --- ### 4. Technical pulse: momentum vs. resistance • The time-series model flags a 52-day bullish trend with 67 % continuation probability . • However, the channel-based forecast shows price wedged between $217.66 and $231.67 resistance, and the system’s advice is “Sell,” citing a bearish outlook . • Similarity-based forecasting pegs the next month’s mean at $224.38 with a max gain of 15.23 % and max loss of 15.98 %—essentially a coin-flip environment . 🎲 --- ### 5. Fundamental tailwinds keep the long-term story alive • AI data-center demand is real: Micron’s 192 GB SOCAMM2 module is sampling, and HBM shipments to four GPU/ASIC customers are already booked through 2025 . • Q1 FY26 guidance of $12.2-12.8 B revenue and 51.5 % gross margin underscores strong pricing power in tight DRAM markets . • Yet competition (Samsung’s price cuts, SK Hynix’s 30 % HBM growth forecast) reminds us margins can flip quickly . ⚔️ --- ### 6. Putting it together Micron’s valuation is no longer a screaming bargain, but its AI memory leadership and robust guidance justify a premium for growth-oriented investors. If you’re looking for fresh entry points, consider waiting for pullbacks toward the $200-210 support zone or scaling in gradually. Long-term holders can ride the AI super-cycle but should hedge around earnings dates when memory pricing surprises can hit the stock hard. 🛡️ --- **Curious thought to ponder:** Given the mixed signals—bullish fundamentals yet stretched multiples—would you feel more comfortable adding on dips, or does the AI momentum make you willing to pay up now? 🤓💬