Can MTUS's EPS recover in 2025?

**Metallus Inc. (MTUS) faces challenges in recovering its EPS in 2025**, as evidenced by the current trends and factors influencing its financial performance: 1. **Recent Performance**: MTUS's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings report revealed a significant miss on both EPS and revenue forecasts. The company posted an EPS of -0.08, falling short of the expected 0.0033, while revenue came in at $240.5 million, below the anticipated $252.8 million. 2. **Underlying Factors**: The company's profit was reduced by $10 million due to unusual items over the last year, which suggests that the statutory profit may not accurately reflect the company's underlying earnings power. Despite this, the EPS actually shrank in the last twelve months. 3. **Market Conditions**: Lower volumes and unfavorable price/mix impacted gross profit, which decreased by 76.3% and 40.2% for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2024, respectively. These challenges are indicative of a difficult market environment that MTUS needs to overcome. 4. **Analyst Forecasts**: Analysts' forecasts for future profitability suggest that the company's underlying earnings potential is as good as, or possibly even better, than its statutory profit makes it seem. However, the negative EPS revisions and declining growth compared to other Materials stocks suggest a cautious outlook. 5. **Strategic Initiatives**: The company anticipates improved performance in 2025, with higher melt utilization and cost savings from automation. These initiatives could potentially lead to a recovery in EPS if they are successfully implemented. In conclusion, while there are some positive factors that suggest MTUS's EPS may recover in 2025, the current financial performance and market conditions indicate that a full recovery is not guaranteed. Investors should closely monitor the company's strategic initiatives and market conditions to assess the likelihood of an EPS recovery.