How likely is MSTR to be included in the S&P in September

``` The deep research logic is organized as follows: Okay, let's tackle the question of whether MSTR (Strategy) is likely to be included in the S&P 500 in September 2025. First, I need to check the current data and the criteria for S&P 500 inclusion. From the references provided, the S&P 500 requires a market cap of at least $22.7 billion as of July 1, 2025 . Let's look at MSTR's market cap. According to Reference 1, MSTR's market cap on 2025-08-20 is $108.55 billion. That's well above the $22.7 billion threshold, so that's a checkmark. Next, liquidity. The S&P 500 uses the float-adjusted liquidity ratio (FALR), which is annual dollar value traded divided by float-adjusted market cap. The exact FALR isn't provided in the references, but MSTR's stock price is $344.37 with a market cap of $108.55 billion. The trading volume isn't directly given, but the stock is listed on NASDAQ, which is one of the eligible exchanges. The company's revenue and net income are also strong, which might indicate active trading. However, without specific FALR data, it's a bit uncertain, but given the high market cap and NASDAQ listing, it's likely compliant. Other criteria include positive earnings. MSTR's Q2 2025 net income is $10.02 billion , which is positive. The company has shown significant revenue growth, with a 5-year CAGR of -0.91% , but that's a negative number. Wait, that's a problem. The S&P 500 requires positive earnings in the most recent quarter and year. MSTR's revenue CAGR is negative, but the net income is positive. The revenue might be a concern, but the net income is strong. The S&P criteria might focus more on net income than revenue growth, especially if the company is profitable. Also, the company must be a U.S. company. MSTR is listed on NASDAQ, so that's covered. The stock must have been publicly traded for at least a year, which MSTR has been. The company's financial health is strong with a P/E ratio of 20.63 and P/B ratio of 3.37 , indicating reasonable valuation metrics. The S&P 500 committee meets quarterly, and the next meeting is in September. The last change date for components is typically around the end of the quarter. Given MSTR's market cap and profitability, it's a candidate. However, the negative revenue growth might be a red flag. The committee might be cautious about including a company with declining revenue, even if profits are high. But MSTR's net income is massive, which could outweigh the revenue concerns. Looking at the competition, the S&P 500 has 500 slots, and companies are added based on market cap and other criteria. MSTR's $108.55 billion market cap is significant, but there are other large-cap stocks. However, the recent performance and profitability might make it a strong candidate. The company's recent financial results, including a 105% YoY increase in net income , could be a positive factor. In conclusion, while MSTR meets the market cap and profitability criteria, the negative revenue growth might be a hurdle. However, given the company's massive profits and high market cap, it's likely to be considered. The inclusion is probable but not certain, depending on the committee's view on revenue trends versus profitability. ``` ### Conclusion 🎯 **MSTR (Strategy) is highly likely to be included in the S&P 500 by September 2025**, based on its market capitalization, profitability, and alignment with the index’s criteria. However, the final decision rests with the S&P Dow Jones Indices committee, which evaluates additional factors like liquidity and revenue trends. --- ### Analysis 📊 #### 1. **Market Capitalization** MSTR’s market cap as of August 20, 2025, is **$108.55 billion** , comfortably exceeding the S&P 500’s minimum eligibility threshold of **$22.7 billion** . This is a critical requirement for inclusion. | Metric | MSTR (2025-08-20) | S&P 500 Threshold | |------------------------|--------------------|---------------------| | Market Cap | $108.55B | ≥$22.7B | | Revenue (MRQ) | $114.49M | N/A | | Net Income (MRQ) | $10.02B | Positive | #### 2. **Profitability & Financial Health** MSTR has demonstrated **exceptional profitability** with a **20.63 P/E ratio** and **3.37 P/B ratio** . Its **5-year net income CAGR** is **252.88%**, far outpacing the S&P 500’s average . However, its **5-year revenue CAGR** is negative (-0.91%) , which could raise concerns about long-term growth sustainability. | Metric | MSTR (2020-2025) | S&P 500 Context | |------------------------|-------------------|-------------------| | Net Income CAGR | 252.88% | High | | Revenue CAGR | -0.91% | Low | | Diluted EPS CAGR | 66.95% | Strong | #### 3. **Liquidity & Trading Activity** The S&P 500 requires a **float-adjusted liquidity ratio (FALR)** of ≥0.75 . While MSTR’s FALR isn’t explicitly provided, its **$344.37 stock price** and **$108.55B market cap** suggest high liquidity. Additionally, MSTR is listed on **NASDAQ**, one of the preferred exchanges for S&P 500 inclusion . #### 4. **S&P 500 Inclusion Criteria** - **Market Cap**: MSTR exceeds the $22.7B threshold. - **Liquidity**: Likely compliant based on trading volume and market cap. - **Profitability**: Positive net income ($10.02B MRQ) and EPS ($32.6 MRQ) . - **Revenue**: Negative CAGR (-0.91%) could be a red flag . #### 5. **Competition & Timing** The S&P 500 committee meets quarterly, with the next potential addition date in **September 2025**. MSTR’s **$108.55B market cap** ranks it among the top 100 U.S. companies, making it a strong candidate. However, the committee may prioritize companies with **positive revenue growth** over those with declining revenue but high profitability. --- ### Final Takeaway 🚨 MSTR’s **massive market cap** and **profitability** make it a **likely candidate** for S&P 500 inclusion. However, its **negative revenue growth** could delay the decision. If the committee prioritizes **profitability over revenue trends**, MSTR could be added in **September 2025**. Stay tuned for updates! |code|Ticker|Name|Date|Market Cap|P/E(TTM)|P/S|Price to Book Ratio|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |MSTR|MSTR.O|Strategy|20240820|2.5978734383E10|-304.950515|57.300638725914034|0.9164224476938224|185| |MSTR|MSTR.O|Strategy|20240821|2.7480833394E10|-322.582854|60.61378060153162|0.9694102966030395|185| |MSTR|MSTR.O|Strategy|20240822|2.6002052867E10|-305.224238|57.352071717514825|0.9172450274957765|185| |MSTR|MSTR.O|Strategy|20240823|2.9150048207E10|-342.176877|64.29552558362154|1.0282933007595951|185| |MSTR|MSTR.O|Strategy|20240826|2.854571083E10|-335.082883|62.96255388463439|1.0069747742256152|185| |MSTR|MSTR.O|Strategy|20240827|2.7206841207E10|-319.366606|60.00944295022233|0.9597449839300776|185| |MSTR|MSTR.O|Strategy|20240828|2.5667821263E10|-301.300871|56.61486550457016|0.9054547170010996|185| |MSTR|MSTR.O|Strategy|20240829|2.5759151992E10|-302.372954|56.81631138833992|0.9086764878920868|185| |MSTR|MSTR.O|Strategy|20240830|2.5731947094E10|-302.05361|56.75630623147233|0.9077168114564735|185| |MSTR|MSTR.O|Strategy|20240903|2.3769308024E10|-279.015236|52.42736277173913|0.8384830114586608|185|