MSFT IS A ASTOCK TO BUY?
10/13/2024 05:22am
**Microsoft (MSFT) exhibits robust fundamentals and a positive technical profile, indicating a strong consideration for a buy position.** Here's the analysis to support this conclusion:
1. **Strong Financial Performance and Growth Prospects**:
- Microsoft's financials show a strong revenue growth rate, with a YoY increase of 15.2% as of December 31, 2024. This is a clear indication of a company that is expanding its market presence and increasing its customer base.
- The company's net income has grown by 9.74%, which, while slower than the revenue growth, still demonstrates a healthy increase in profitability.
- The diluted earnings per share (EPS) has shown a positive quarter-over-quarter growth of 0.34%, which suggests that the company is not only increasing its top line but also managing to translate that into improved earnings per share.
|Ticker|Name|Date|Total Revenue (FY)|Total Revenue (FY) YoY|code|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|2019|1.25843E11|14.02953968829286|MSFT|185|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|2020|1.43015E11|13.645574247276368|MSFT|185|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|2021|1.68088E11|17.531727441177498|MSFT|185|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|2022|1.9827E11|17.956070629670172|MSFT|185|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|2023|2.11915E11|6.882029555656429|MSFT|185|
|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Income (FY) YoY|Net Income (FY)|code|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|2019|136.79922756623014|3.924E10|MSFT|185|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|2020|12.846585117227319|4.4281E10|MSFT|185|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|2021|38.36860052844335|6.1271E10|MSFT|185|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|2022|18.715216007572913|7.2738E10|MSFT|185|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|2023|-0.5182985509637328|7.2361E10|MSFT|185|
|Ticker|Name|Date|Diluted EPS (FY) YoY|Diluted EPS (FY)|code|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|2019|137.55868544600938|5.06|MSFT|185|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|2020|13.833992094861664|5.76|MSFT|185|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|2021|39.756944444444464|8.05|MSFT|185|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|2022|19.875776397515523|9.65|MSFT|185|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|2023|0.3108808290155374|9.68|MSFT|185|
2. **Consistent Long-Term Growth**:
- Over the past three years, Microsoft has maintained a revenue CAGR of 11.19%, a net income CAGR of 10.08%, and a diluted EPS CAGR of 10.58%. These figures indicate a consistent performer that has been growing steadily over time.
|Ticker|Name|Date|Total Revenue (FY)|Net Income (FY)|Diluted EPS (FY)|code|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|2021|1.68088E11|6.1271E10|8.05|MSFT|185|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|2022|1.9827E11|7.2738E10|9.65|MSFT|185|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|2023|2.11915E11|7.2361E10|9.68|MSFT|185|
3. **Attractive Valuation Metrics**:
- The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 35.91, which is reasonable compared to the industry average, suggesting that the stock is not overvalued relative to its earnings.
- The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 12.62, and the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 11.53, both of which are within the range of industry averages, indicating a fair valuation.
|Ticker|Name|Date|P/E(TTM)|P/S|Price to Book Ratio|code|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|20240102|33.393172|12.192805394643205|12.488574036790734|MSFT|185|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|20240103|33.368861|12.183928814017905||MSFT|185|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|20240104|33.129354|12.096478056745315|12.389910025337132|MSFT|185|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|20240105|33.112247|12.090231574083019|12.383512017768469|MSFT|185|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|20240108|33.737125|12.318392572380876|12.617207662644915|MSFT|185|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|20240109|33.836169|12.354556419373374|12.654248759095074|MSFT|185|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|20240110|34.464649|12.584032466652953|12.889291352933345|MSFT|185|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|20240111|34.632124|12.645182244295079|12.951924479658155|MSFT|185|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|20240112|34.977878|12.771426946523171|13.08123157999325|MSFT|185|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|20240116|35.13995|12.83060415069271|13.141844283275326|MSFT|185|
4. **Positive Technical Indicators**:
- The stock's moving averages are well-ordered, with the 5-Day, 10-Day, and 20-Day moving averages close to the closing price, suggesting recent strength. The 30-Day, 50-Day, and 60-Day moving averages also indicate a positive trend, and the 120-Day, 200-Day, and 250-Day moving averages show a bullish signal.
- The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is -2.89, which is typically considered a bearish signal, but it is important to note the context in which it appears. The stock is not in an overall downtrend, and the MACD is not a strong indicator against buying.
5. **Analyst Confidence and Fund Flow**:
- The consensus rating is a "Buy" with an average price target of $503.17, which is a significant premium over the current price, indicating analyst optimism.
- The net fund flow is positive at $46.3 million, and the net fund flow (block order) is even stronger at $105.96 million, suggesting strong institutional interest and confidence in the stock.
|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Fund Flow|code|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|20240102|-3.68380122E9|MSFT|185|
|BLK.N|Blackrock|20240102|-1.18004776E7|BLK|169|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|20240103|3.0781661E9|MSFT|185|
|BLK.N|Blackrock|20240103|-3825228.6|BLK|169|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|20240104|2.1648839E8|MSFT|185|
|BLK.N|Blackrock|20240104|-5921172.4|BLK|169|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|20240105|2.23168918E9|MSFT|185|
|BLK.N|Blackrock|20240105|-1.77332325E7|BLK|169|
|MSFT.O|Microsoft|20240108|3.47627272E9|MSFT|185|
|BLK.N|Blackrock|20240108|-1061638|BLK|169|
6. **Strategic Investments and Product Launches**:
- Microsoft's strategic investments in AI, as evidenced by the expansion of its healthcare AI capabilities, position the company well for future growth in emerging markets.
- The launch of TypeScript 5.7 demonstrates the company's commitment to innovation in software development, which could positively impact its software development and cloud services segments.
In conclusion, Microsoft's strong financial performance, consistent growth, attractive valuation, positive technical indicators, analyst confidence, and strategic investments make it a compelling stock to consider for a buy position.