Is LCNB's Q1 2025 forecast achievable?

**LCNB's Q1 2025 forecast is not currently achievable based on the available data and trends.** Here's the analysis to support this conclusion: 1. **Recent Performance Trends**: LCNB's recent financial performance indicators show a decline in profit margins and an increase in non-performing loans. The net interest margin (NIM) decreased from 3.14% in FY 2023 to 2.91% in FY 2024. Additionally, the company's shares have traded below its 200-day moving average, indicating a potential bearish trend. 2. **Economic Conditions**: The broader economic conditions, including interest rate changes and market competition, are likely to impact LCNB's performance. The bank faces strong competition from various financial institutions, including national and state banks, credit unions, and FinTech companies. The provision for credit losses in 2024 was $1,962,000, compared to $2,077,000 in 2023, with net charge-offs totaling $741,000 for the year. 3. **Future Projections**: Analysts forecast that LCNB's earnings per share (EPS) for the current fiscal year will be $1.65. This is lower than the EPS of $0.97 reported for FY 2024. Furthermore, the company's revenue is expected to decline by 5.9% per annum over the next two years, while the Banks industry in the US is expected to grow by 7.4%. 4. **Institutional Investor Activity**: There has been some institutional investor activity, with Johnson Investment Counsel Inc. boosting its stake in LCNB by 15.2% in the fourth quarter. However, this does not necessarily indicate a positive outlook for the short term. 5. **Dividend and Stock Performance**: LCNB has declared a quarterly dividend, which may appeal to income-focused investors. However, the stock's recent performance and the payout ratio of 90.72% suggest that the dividend may be a concern for investors seeking capital appreciation. In conclusion, while LCNB has shown resilience in certain areas, such as revenue growth and earnings per share, the decline in profit margins, the competitive landscape, and the projected decline in revenue make it challenging to achieve the Q1 2025 forecast based on the available data.