Is LAMR's Q4 2024 EPS decline a long-term concern?

**Lamar Advertising's (LAMR) Q4 2024 EPS decline is not a long-term concern.** Here's why: 1. **Contextualize the EPS Miss**: The EPS of -$0.01 for Q4 2024, compared to the forecast of $1.43, is a significant miss. However, it is important to consider the broader financial metrics and market conditions. 2. **Revenue Performance**: While revenue also missed expectations, there were positive aspects. Acquisition-adjusted revenue increased by 4.1% for the quarter, and full-year acquisition-adjusted revenue rose by 4.2% to $2.21 billion. This indicates a growing revenue trend despite the quarterly shortfall. |code|Ticker|Name|Date|Diluted EPS YoY|Diluted EPS|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |LAMR|LAMR.O|Lamar Advertising|2024 Q1|2.7027027027027053|0.76|185| |LAMR|LAMR.O|Lamar Advertising|2024 Q2|4.687500000000004|1.34|185| |LAMR|LAMR.O|Lamar Advertising|2024 Q3|5.1094890510948785|1.44|185| 3. **AFFO and Dividend Yield**: The company's adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) per share met estimates at $2.21, which is a positive signal for the company's financial health. Additionally, the annual dividend of $5.20 offers a yield of 4.43%, suggesting strong return potential to shareholders. 4. **Digital Expansion and M&A Pipeline**: Lamar Advertising plans to expand its digital advertising network significantly in 2025, which could drive future growth. The company also has a $150 million M&A pipeline, indicating strategic efforts to bolster its market position. 5. **Historical Performance and Profitability**: Lamar Advertising has demonstrated consistent profitability over the past twelve months, maintaining a strong gross profit margin of 67%. Although there was a short-term EPS miss, the company's historical performance and profitability metrics are reassuring. 6. **Market Reaction and Outlook**: Despite the Q4 miss, the stock did not react negatively in the long term, as indicated by the 6% dip in the week following the earnings release, which was offset by a healthy 11% dividend increase and a positive outlook for 2025. This suggests that the market may not view the EPS decline as a long-term concern. In conclusion, while the Q4 2024 EPS decline is a concern in the short term, it is unlikely to be a long-term concern given the company's overall financial health, growth initiatives, and consistent profitability.