How does JCI's earnings surprise history affect its stock price?

**JCI's earnings surprise history has a positive impact on its stock price in the short term, with longer-term effects showing volatility.** Here's a detailed analysis: 1. **Short-Term Impact**: - **Earnings Beat Expectations**: When JCI's earnings exceed expectations, the stock price tends to rise in the immediate 3 days, with a 3-day win rate of 61.54%. The returns are even stronger over 10 days, with a 10-day win rate of 69.23%. This suggests that the market reacts positively to earnings beats, likely due to increased investor confidence. - **Earnings Miss Expectations**: Conversely, when earnings fall short of expectations, the stock price rises in the immediate 3 days in all cases, as indicated by a 100% 3-day win rate. The 10-day win rate is also high at 100%, suggesting that the market tends to rebound from earnings misses, possibly due to buying on the dip or anticipation of future earnings improvements. 2. **Long-Term Impact**: - **Earnings Beat Expectations**: While the stock price increases in the short term, the 30-day return is more modest at 5.47%, with a maximum return of 16.45% over 30 days. This indicates that while there is some long-term appreciation, it is not consistently strong. - **Earnings Miss Expectations**: The long-term returns are more robust, with a 30-day return of 6.35% and a maximum return of 24.78% over 30 days. This suggests that the market may appreciate the lower prices following an earnings miss, leading to potential gains as the stock price recovers or grows. 3. **Overall Trend**: Both earnings beats and misses lead to positive returns in the short term, but the magnitude of the returns varies. Earnings misses tend to have a more significant impact on the stock price in the long term, possibly due to the lower entry price providing a better opportunity for investors. In conclusion, JCI's earnings surprise history affects its stock price with a clear positive short-term reaction to both earnings beats and misses. However, the long-term impact shows volatility, with earnings misses potentially leading to greater gains due to the lower entry prices. Investors should consider these historical trends when assessing the potential of JCI's stock following earnings reports.