Is PL's Q1 2026 EPS forecast optimistic?

**Planet Labs' (PL) Q1 2026 EPS forecast appears to be cautiously optimistic**. Here's a detailed analysis: 1. **Revenue Projection**: Planet Labs expects revenue for Q1 2026 to be between $61 million and $63 million. This represents a year-over-year growth of approximately 3% at the midpoint. While this is a positive indicator, it falls short of some market expectations, which were around $65.3 million. |code|Ticker|Name|Date|Diluted EPS YoY|Diluted EPS|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |PL|PL.N|Planet Labs|2025 Q1|23.076923076923077|-0.1|169| |PL|PL.N|Planet Labs|2025 Q2|7.142857142857148|-0.13|169| |PL|PL.N|Planet Labs|2025 Q3|46.15384615384615|-0.07|169| |PL|PL.N|Planet Labs|2025 Q4|-9.090909090909086|-0.12|169| 2. **Gross Margin Expectations**: The company anticipates a non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 58% to 60% for the quarter. This is slightly below the consensus estimate of 62.9%. Gross margin improvements are evident, but the forecast suggests that operational efficiencies may not yet be fully reflected in the financials. 3. **EBITDA Loss Expectations**: Planet Labs expects an adjusted EBITDA loss ranging from $3 million to $2 million for the quarter. This is a significant improvement compared to the previous year's loss of $13.4 million for the same period. The company has shown the first quarter of adjusted EBITDA profitability, reporting $2.4 million in Q4. 4. **Capital Expenditure Considerations**: The company forecasts capital expenditures to be in the range of $11 million to $16 million for the quarter. This indicates a strategic focus on investing in growth opportunities while managing cash outflows. 5. **Strategic Context**: Despite the Q1 forecast falling short of expectations, analysts maintain a positive long-term outlook. This optimism is supported by strategic transitions in product offerings, a transformative $230 million JSAT deal, and significant revenue growth in the defense and intelligence sectors. In conclusion, while the Q1 2026 EPS forecast may not meet all market expectations, it reflects a company that is strategically positioning itself for growth. The improvements in gross margin, EBITDA loss reduction, and revenue growth in key sectors suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook.