Is Oxford Lane Capital (OXLC) a good buy after its recent price drop?
7/2/2025 09:05pm
**Oxford Lane Capital (OXLC) does not appear to be a strong buy after its recent price drop**, and here's why:
1. **Recent Performance**: OXLC's stock has experienced a decline of 1.72% on June 23. Although it has seen slight increases on June 24, June 26, and June 30, the overall trend over the past two weeks has been negative, with a cumulative decrease of 1.24%.
|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Percentage Change|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|OXLC|OXLC.O|Oxford Lane Capital|20250626|0.7407|185|
|OXLC|OXLC.O|Oxford Lane Capital|20250627|1.4706|185|
|OXLC|OXLC.O|Oxford Lane Capital|20250630|1.4493|185|
|OXLC|OXLC.O|Oxford Lane Capital|20250701|-0.2381|185|
|OXLC|OXLC.O|Oxford Lane Capital|20250702|-0.238095238095233|185|
2. **Market Sentiment**: Institutional investors have made notable moves regarding their holdings in OXLC. Money Concepts Capital Corp purchased a new position in OXLC in the first quarter, investing $356,000 in 75,457 shares. However, other institutional investors have shown less enthusiasm, with Quilter Plc and Border to Coast Pensions Partnership Ltd increasing their holdings by relatively small amounts. Oppenheimer & Co. and Cambridge Investment Research Advisors Inc. also increased their holdings, but the overall pattern suggests a lack of strong institutional support.
3. **Dividend Yield**: OXLC offers a high dividend yield of 26%, which is certainly attractive. However, the sustainability of this yield is questionable. The dividend payout ratio has risen as the NAV has fallen, and there are risks of further NAV declines and dilution.
4. **Stock Valuation**: The stock's valuation is complex due to its nature as a closed-end fund. It is sensitive to credit risk and net asset value, which can lead to larger price movements than typical stocks. The leveraged nature of OXLC's investments means that while prices rise, the NAV may not keep up, and vice versa.
5. **Short Interest**: There has been a significant decrease in short interest, which could indicate a potential reversal if market sentiment shifts.
In conclusion, while OXLC's high dividend yield is enticing, the risks associated with its NAV volatility, dilution from ATM offerings, and the need to generate taxable income to retain its RIC status suggest that it may not be a good buy at this time. Investors should carefully consider these factors and their own risk tolerance before making a decision.