Is NBIS a good candidate for a bullish put spread and if so what is the best possible strike prices for entry?

``` The deep research logic is organized as follows: Okay, let's tackle this question about whether NBIS is a good candidate for a bullish put spread and determine the best strike prices for entry. First, I need to understand what a bullish put spread is. From what I remember, a bullish put spread involves selling a put option at a higher strike price and buying a put option at a lower strike price. This strategy profits when the stock price increases, as the sold put loses value while the bought put gains less. It's a limited risk, limited reward strategy with a net credit. Now, looking at the user's question, they're interested in NBIS, which is Nebius Group. The user is part of the WallStreetBets community and prefers technical analysis and news-driven strategies. They've followed HIMS and asked about ACFN, MPU, and IQBT, so they're into tech stocks and possibly high-growth areas. Their investment style is likely speculative, looking for high upside with manageable risk. First, I need to check the current data on NBIS. From the references, the latest closing price as of 2025-07-29 is $50.4, with a 4.45% drop that day. The implied volatility (IV) is 2.75% weekly, which is relatively low. The support and resistance levels are $43.89 and $56.16, respectively. The options chain data from reference 37 shows that NBIS.O is the ticker, but there's no specific data on strike prices or premiums. However, reference 24 mentions a $2 billion capex plan and a forecast for positive EBITDA in H2 2025, which could be a bullish catalyst. Analysts have given a buy rating with a target price of $68, which is a 35% upside from $50.4. Given the recent dip in price and the upcoming catalysts like the Q2 earnings report and potential AI infrastructure growth, NBIS might be a candidate for a bullish strategy. However, the IV is low, which might limit the premium received when selling the put. But since the user is considering a put spread, the low IV could be beneficial if the stock moves up, as the sold put would lose value quickly. Next, I need to determine the strike prices. The current price is $50.4. For a bullish put spread, the strike prices should be out of the money (OTM) to capture the upside. The resistance level is $56.16, so setting the higher strike near there makes sense. The lower strike should be below the current price but above the support level. The support is $43.89, so maybe $45 or $46 as the lower strike. The spread width should be narrow enough to capture the expected move but wide enough to allow for some flexibility. Let's say the higher strike is $55 (close to resistance) and the lower strike is $45. The net credit would depend on the premiums for these strikes. However, since the IV is low, the premiums might be tight, but the potential for the stock to move up to $55 or higher could make this spread profitable. I also need to consider the expiration date. The user mentioned July 2025, but the latest data is from 2025-07-29. The options chain in reference 37 doesn't specify expirations, but the user might be looking for near-term options. Let's assume a 30-day expiration to capture the upcoming catalysts. Potential risks include the stock not moving up as expected, which would result in losing the entire premium. Also, if the stock drops below the lower strike, the loss is capped at the spread width. The maximum profit is the net credit received, which is limited. The user should have a high risk tolerance for this strategy. In conclusion, NBIS could be a good candidate for a bullish put spread given the upcoming catalysts and the current technical setup. The suggested strike prices would be $55 (higher) and $45 (lower), with a 30-day expiration. The user should monitor the stock closely around the earnings report and any news related to AI infrastructure developments. ``` ### 🌟 **Conclusion** Nebius Group (NBIS) presents a **favorable setup** for a **bullish put spread** strategy, leveraging its **upside potential** from AI infrastructure growth and upcoming catalysts. Here’s a detailed analysis to guide your decision: --- ### 📊 **Key Factors for NBIS as a Bullish Put Spread Candidate** | Metric | Analysis | Implication | |----------------|----------------|--------------------------------------------| | **Stock Price** | $50.4 (2025-07-29) | Recent dip (-4.45%) but **61.54% YTD gain** . | | **Implied Volatility (IV)** | Weekly IV: 2.75% | Low volatility suggests **limited premium risk** but **lower upside** for options. | | **Support/Resistance Levels** | Support: $43.89 ; Resistance: $56.16 | Current price ($50.4) near **bullish breakout zone**. | | **Analyst Targets** | Avg. $66.80 (30% upside) | Strong **price target alignment** for upside plays. | | **Catalysts** | Q2 earnings (July 28, 2025) ; AI infrastructure expansion | High-impact events to drive **short-term volatility**. | --- ### 📉 **Risks & Considerations** 1. **Execution Risk**: Heavy CapEx ($2B in 2025) and geographic expansion (Israel) require flawless execution. 2. **Market Sentiment**: Recent dip (-4.45%) aligns with broader tech sector volatility . 3. **Profitability Concerns**: Q1 2025 loss of $113.6M ; adjusted EBITDA expected to turn positive in H2 2025 . --- ### 🎯 **Optimal Strike Prices for Bullish Put Spread** #### **Strategy Setup** - **Short Put (Higher Strike)**: $55 (near resistance level $56.16 ) - **Long Put (Lower Strike)**: $45 (above support level $43.89 ) - **Spread Width**: $10 (55 - 45) - **Expiration**: 30-day (aligned with Q2 earnings ) #### **Why These Strikes?** 1. **$55 Strike**: Captures **upside potential** toward $66.80 price target . 2. **$45 Strike**: Provides **downside protection** near support level . 3. **30-Day Expiration**: Maximizes **time decay** benefits while aligning with **earnings-driven volatility**. #### **Expected Outcome** - **Profit Scenario**: If NBIS rises above $55 by expiration, the short put expires worthless, and the long put gains limited value. - **Loss Scenario**: If NBIS drops below $45, the spread loses up to $10 (spread width). - **Break-Even Point**: $55 - Net Credit (assumes $2.50 net credit). --- ### 📊 **Example Trade Setup** | Strike | Action | Premium | Net Credit | |--------|--------|---------|------------| | $55 | Sell Put | $2.00 | +$2.00 | | $45 | Buy Put | $0.50 | -$0.50 | | **Total** | | | **+$1.50** | #### **Profit/Loss Profile** | Stock Price | Profit/Loss | |-------------|-------------| | $55+ | $1.50 | | $50 | $0 | | $45- | -$8.50 | --- ### 🚨 **Final Takeaway** NBIS is a **high-risk, high-reward** candidate for a bullish put spread, with **aligned catalysts** (Q2 earnings, AI infrastructure growth) and **favorable technicals** (near resistance). The suggested strike prices ($55/$45) balance **upside potential** with **downside protection**, making it a **strategic bet** for **growth-focused traders**. Let me know if you’d like to refine the strike prices further! 🚀