Should investors be worried about CAR's earnings trajectory?

**Investors should not be overly concerned about Avis Budget Group's (CAR) current earnings trajectory**, as several factors indicate a promising outlook despite recent challenges. 1. **Strategic Positioning**: CAR is benefiting from the global tourism recovery, with expectations of revenue growth driven by strategic fleet management and market share in the recovering car rental industry. 2. **Market Trends**: The car rental market in North America is expected to reach $37 billion by 2025, and CAR's strong market share positions it well to capitalize on this trend. 3. **Financial Adjustments**: CAR has secured a $500 million term loan for fleet renewal, which is a strategic move to enhance operational fleet and maintain a competitive edge. 4. **Operational Improvements**: The company has seen improvements in vehicle utilization and revenue per day, and international operations have shown growth in higher-margin volumes. 5. **Analyst Expectations**: Analysts forecast a surge in earnings for fiscal 2025, with estimated EPS of -$5.49 for Q1, indicating a significant year-over-year improvement. Revenue is expected to reach $2.6 billion, reflecting a 1.5% year-over-year increase. 6. **Long-Term Outlook**: CAR's revenues are anticipated to increase by 1.5% and 2% year over year in fiscal 2025 and 2026, respectively, with earnings estimated to surge more than 100% in fiscal 2025 and 63.7% in fiscal 2026. While there are challenges, such as rising fleet costs and low liquidity, the overall outlook for CAR's earnings trajectory appears positive, supported by strategic decisions, market trends, and analyst expectations. Investors should monitor the company's execution of strategic plans and any developments in the car rental market.