Is INDV's Q1 2025 EPS forecast too conservative?

**Indivior's Q1 2025 EPS forecast appears to be conservative.** Here's why: 1. **Consensus and Actual Performance**: The consensus for Indivior's Q1 2025 EPS was $0.26, which was surpassed by the company's actual EPS of $0.32. This indicates that the company's performance exceeded expectations. 2. **Revenue Outlook**: Despite a slight miss in revenue expectations for Q1 2025, the company's full-year revenue guidance for 2025 is $955 million to $1.025 billion, which is still in line with market expectations. The company's adjusted EBIT guidance of $185 million to $225 million also suggests a healthy profitability range. 3. **Market Conditions and Competitive Factors**: Indivior's core products, Sublocade and Suboxone Film, have shown varying degrees of success. Sublocade sales have increased by 10% to $194 million, while Suboxone Film's market share has fallen due to generic competition. However, the company's overall revenue growth of 8.7% in 2024 and the success of its flagship product, Sublocade, suggest a resilient market position. 4. **Stock Performance and Analyst Sentiment**: Despite the conservative guidance, Indivior's stock has experienced a significant drop due to investor concerns over the lower revenues in 2025. However, the company's strong market position and the growth in Sublocade sales indicate that the EPS forecast may be conservative in the context of the company's actual performance capabilities. In conclusion, given Indivior's track record of exceeding EPS expectations, the company's Q1 2025 EPS forecast of $0.26 may be considered conservative based on the company's recent performance and market conditions.