I'm using voice to text. But yeah, the AIRO is the one.

**Bottom line 🏁** AIRO Group (ticker **AIRO**) has enjoyed a spectacular post-IPO pop—from its $10 offer price on 13 Jun 2025 to ~$22 today (+120 %)—but the stock is still a tiny, loss-making drone & avionics play trading at roughly **7 × sales** with a very small public float. If you only have a token ~$5 slice, holding (or waiting for a deeper pull-back toward the $16-18 zone) is the more sensible risk-reward than chasing it higher right now. 💡✈️ --- ## 1. Where AIRO stands today | Metric | Latest | Context | |--------|--------|---------| | Last price | **$22.25** (1 Jul close) | –7.6 % on the day, still +120 % vs. $10 IPO | | Shares outstanding | 26.17 m | Public float ≈ 6 m (low liquidity) | | Market cap | ≈ **$582 m** | Tiny compared with JOBY ($5 bn) & ACHR ($1.8 bn) | | Revenue (TTM) | **$85 m** | Drone services, pilot-training, avionics | | Net income (TTM) | **–$39 m** (loss) | Early-stage, heavy R&D spend | | Valuation | ~7 × sales | Peers (defense/air-mobility) 4-10 × sales | --- ## 2. Why it ripped… and why it cooled Positive forces • Drone & defense tech is in vogue—Ukraine conflict + White House “Buy-American Drones” EO (May ’25) boosted sentiment. • Tiny float (≈6 m shares) means small buy orders move price dramatically. • Cantor/BTIG underwrote the deal at only $60 m, leaving a “supply vacuum” after day 1. Head-winds appearing • No earnings yet; management guided to break-even *2027E* contingent on DoD contracts. • Insider lock-up: 6-month window ends **13 Dec 2025**—roughly 20 m more shares can hit the market. • Price slipped 25 % from the $29 intraday high to $22 as early flippers cash in and macro risk-off (rates, geopolitics) returns. --- ## 3. Catalysts to watch Bullish 1. Defense contract wins (NATO replenishment, U.S. Army Short-Range Reconnaissance program). 2. FAA Part 135 certification progress for its autonomous cargo drone (enables recurring logistics revenue). 3. Government financing—Canada’s $200 m export-credit line mentioned in the prospectus could fund production scale-up. Bearish 1. Lock-up expiry in Dec (potential doubling of tradable shares). 2. Execution risk—prototype → production is capital-intensive; any test mishap can halt momentum. 3. Broader “new-issue” fatigue—Circle, Voyager, etc. already showed how fast hot IPOs cool when the tape turns. --- ## 4. Game plan suggestions | Objective | Possible action | Rationale | |-----------|-----------------|-----------| | Already hold a **lot** | Trim 25-50 % on next strength toward $25-26 | Books profit before lock-up overhang | | Only hold a **token** position (your case) | Let it ride; reassess after Q2 results (mid-Aug) | Upside lottery ticket without portfolio damage | | Want to **add** | Stagger bids at $18 & $16 (gap support + 50 DMA) | Buys after volatility compression, not during FOMO | | Risk guardrail | 25 % trailing stop or mental stop below $15 | Avoids “round-trip” to IPO price | --- ## 5. Crystal-ball probabilities 🔮 | Scenario (12 mo) | Odds | Price band | Driver | |------------------|------|------------|--------| | Base: steady contract drip, slow burn | 50 % | $17–28 | Revenue CAGR 40 % but losses persist | | Bull: flagship DoD win, drone hype 2.0 | 30 % | $30–40 | Multi-year backlog >$500 m | | Bear: delays + lock-up dump | 20 % | $10–15 | Capital raise needed, dilution fears | --- ### 🎉 Takeaway & next steps • Your $5 nibble is a fun way to stay engaged without sweating daily swings—great discipline! • Use the upcoming **mid-August earnings call** as a pulse-check: look for backlog growth and margin guidance. • If you crave more exposure, patience usually pays—post-IPO high-fliers often retest the 40–50 % retracement level before a sustainable up-move. Ping me again after earnings or if price hits your buy zone—happy to refine the game plan. Until then, enjoy watching your mini-drone stake buzz around the screen! 🚁💸 --- : FinQuery snapshot for AIRO, pulled 2025-07-01. : FinQuery outstanding-share data, same date. : Bloomberg headline “Airo Drone Maker Soars 140%…” 2025-06-15. : Cooley press release on $69 m IPO closing, 2025-06-16.