How did HST's Q4 earnings surprise impact investor confidence?

**Host Hotels & Resorts' (HST) Q4 earnings surprise had a mixed impact on investor confidence**, as evidenced by several key indicators: 1. **Positive Aspects of the Earnings Report**: - HST reported an earnings per share (EPS) surprise of $0.02 for Q4 2024, which is a positive sign as it indicates the company's performance exceeded market expectations. - The company delivered adjusted EBITDAre of $324 million and adjusted funds from operations (FFO) per share of $0.36, showing resilience despite challenges. - There was a year-over-year comparable hotel total revenue per available room (RevPAR) improvement of 3.1%, highlighting strong out-of-room revenue. - Thanksgiving and festive revenue pace for the three Maui resorts saw significant increases, indicating a positive recovery trend. - Host Hotels & Resorts repurchased 3.5 million shares of stock, demonstrating a commitment to returning capital to shareholders. 2. **Negative Aspects of the Earnings Report**: - Hurricanes Helene and Milton caused significant disruptions, with The Don CeSar remaining closed, impacting full-year guidance. - Maui wildfires resulted in a 190 basis point drag on third-quarter RevPAR, with group bookings expected to take longer to recover. - Comparable hotel EBITDA margin declined by 130 basis points due to increased wages and benefits, and impacts from Maui and hurricanes. - The company revised its 2024 full-year adjusted EBITDAre guidance down by approximately 1% due to hurricane impacts. 3. **Analyst Ratings and Price Targets**: - Despite the challenges, analysts have shown mixed ratings, with a "Moderate Buy" rating overall. - The average analyst price target for HST is $20.63, indicating a 17.6% potential upside from the current levels. 4. **Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment**: - The market may weigh the positive EPS surprise against the negative impacts of natural disasters and guidance revision, which could lead to a cautious market reaction. - Investor sentiment might be influenced by the company's strategic moves, such as share repurchases and asset management decisions, which could bolster confidence in the long term. In conclusion, while the Q4 earnings surprise had some positive elements, the overall impact on investor confidence is likely to be tempered by the negative effects of natural disasters and the guidance revision. The mixed analyst ratings and price targets suggest that while there is potential upside, investors may need to closely monitor the company's operational performance and strategic initiatives moving forward.