How reliable are WBA's EPS forecasts historically?

**Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) has shown mixed reliability in its EPS forecasts historically**, which can be analyzed from the following points: 1. **Recent Performance**: WBA's adjusted EPS for Q2 2024-25 was $0.63, which is a significant decline of 47.5% from the $1.20 reported in the same period last year. Despite this decline, the company's revenue increased by 4.1% to $38.6 billion, surpassing analyst expectations. 2. **Analyst Expectations**: Analysts had forecasted a slightly higher EPS of $0.74 for the quarter. WBA's actual EPS of $0.63 missed this expectation by approximately $0.11. 3. **Historical Trends**: Historical data shows that WBA's EPS has been volatile, with a significant decline in EPS in the current quarter compared to the previous year. This volatility is likely due to various factors, including changes in tax benefits, retail sales, and profits from sale-leasebacks. 4. **Future Outlook**: Given the significant merger with Sycamore Partners, WBA has withdrawn its 2025 guidance, which makes it challenging to assess the company's future EPS trajectory with certainty. 5. **Market Sentiment**: Despite the EPS decline, analysts maintain a "Hold" rating on WBA, with an average one-year price target suggesting potential upside. This sentiment is supported by the GuruFocus GF Value metric, which estimates a significant upside potential of 209.79% from the current stock price. In conclusion, while WBA's EPS forecasts have not been entirely reliable due to recent volatility and significant merger-related changes, the company's strong revenue growth and analyst sentiment suggest a potential for future upside. Investors should closely monitor the company's performance and guidance updates following the merger.