How reliable are QBTS's earnings forecasts historically?

D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) has shown volatile financial performance, making its earnings forecasts less reliable historically: 1. **Significant Variations in Net Income**: The company's net income has experienced a substantial decline of 437.51%, resulting in a net loss of $86.08 million for the quarter ending December 31, 2024. This sharp deterioration highlights the unpredictability of its financial performance. |code|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Income YoY|Net Income|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |QBTS|QBTS.N|D-Wave Quantum|2024 Q1|29.06662296156683|-1.7312E7|169| |QBTS|QBTS.N|D-Wave Quantum|2024 Q2|32.11653747756692|-1.7778E7|169| |QBTS|QBTS.N|D-Wave Quantum|2024 Q3|-41.01577052030299|-2.2712E7|169| |QBTS|QBTS.N|D-Wave Quantum|2024 Q4|-437.5109279380542|-8.6077E7|169| 2. **Revenue Growth Amid Losses**: Despite a 20.54% year-over-year decline in revenue, QBTS reported $2.31 million in revenue for the quarter, with other segments contributing significantly. This mixed performance indicates that revenue growth does not necessarily translate to profitability. |code|Ticker|Name|Date|Total Revenue YoY|Total Revenue|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |QBTS|QBTS.N|D-Wave Quantum|2024 Q1|55.716993051168664|2465000|169| |QBTS|QBTS.N|D-Wave Quantum|2024 Q2|27.885178676039835|2183000|169| |QBTS|QBTS.N|D-Wave Quantum|2024 Q3|-27.010148321623735|1870000|169| |QBTS|QBTS.N|D-Wave Quantum|2024 Q4|-20.54370268410186|2309000|169| 3. **Historical Earnings Performance**: - In 2024, QBTS reported a net loss of $143.9 million, an increase of 74% from the previous year. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 84%. - Revenue was in line with analyst estimates, but the company's performance is heavily influenced by non-operating costs, which totaled $66.7 million. 4. **Recent Stock Surge and Optimism**: Despite the negative earnings, QBTS's stock surged by over 100% following claims of achieving "quantum supremacy". The company's forward-looking revenue forecast exceeds $10 million, reflecting optimism about its growth trajectory. 5. **Analyst Expectations and Actual Performance**: Analysts had forecasted a 6-cent loss against total projected revenues of approximately $2.2 million for the quarter. However, QBTS reported an 8-cent per share loss. This discrepancy highlights the competitive pressures and unpredictable nature of the technology sector. 6. **Future Earnings Forecasts**: QBTS's estimated EPS for the upcoming quarter is -$0.10, with a consensus EPS of -$0.10. This suggests that analysts do not expect significant improvements in earnings in the near term. In conclusion, QBTS's earnings forecasts are currently less reliable due to its history of significant losses, missed earnings expectations, and volatile revenue growth. While there is optimism about its future revenue potential, the company's financial performance remains unpredictable, making its earnings forecasts challenging to rely on historically.