How reliable are MMM's quarterly forecasts?

3M's (MMM) quarterly forecasts have shown a general trend of improving accuracy over the past five years, with some fluctuations. The average forecast accuracy for MMM's quarterly earnings is -0.03%, indicating that the forecasts are slightly biased towards underestimating the actual earnings. However, this bias is not consistently negative, and the forecasts have been accurate in certain quarters, such as 2024Q4, where the estimated EPS was $2.31, and the actual EPS was $2.77. The company's focus on improving service levels and logistics, as well as its efforts to improve forecast accuracy through new algorithms and standardized demand planning processes, suggest that MMM is actively working to enhance the reliability of its forecasts. The company's strong finish in the fourth quarter of 2024 and its confidence in delivering in 2025 also indicate a positive outlook for the accuracy of its forecasts moving forward. In conclusion, while MMM's quarterly forecasts have not been consistently accurate, the company's efforts to improve forecast accuracy and the slight improvement in accuracy observed in recent quarters suggest that the forecasts can be reliable, especially for the near term.