How might QVCGA's EPS trend change in Q1 2025?
4/11/2025 06:28pm
**QVCGA's EPS is likely to face challenges in Q1 2025.** Here's a detailed analysis:
1. **Revenue Declines and Margin Pressure**: QVC Group Inc. (QVCGA) experienced a challenging quarter with total revenue declining by 6% in Q4. The pressure on revenue was significant from linear television declines, which is a concerning trend for a company that relies heavily on traditional television advertising. The decline in total customer count by 9% in Q4, with a 17% drop in new customers, indicates a weakening consumer engagement and potential market share loss.
2. **International Performance and Streaming Growth**: Despite the challenges, QVC International was the best-performing segment in Q4, with OIBDA increasing by 12% year-on-year. The company's streaming business showed promising growth, with monthly average users up by 80% and attributed revenue growing by 19%. However, these positive developments may not immediately translate to an EPS improvement in Q1 2025 due to the ongoing revenue declines in other segments.
3. **Financial Health Improvements**: QVC Group Inc. successfully completed Project Athens, achieving over $500 million in run rate OIBDA improvement. The company also expanded OIBDA margins by 220 basis points and improved free cash flow by over $500 million from 2022 to 2024. These financial health improvements are positive indicators but may not directly impact EPS in the upcoming quarter if revenue trends do not stabilize.
4. **Market Uncertainties and Trade Policies**: Customers remain cautious due to heightened uncertainty around trade policies and the timing of market recovery. This cautious sentiment could persist into Q1 2025, affecting advertising spending and, consequently, QVCGA's revenue and EPS.
In conclusion, while QVCGA has made strides in improving its financial health and growing its streaming business, the immediate impact of these developments on EPS in Q1 2025 may be muted by the ongoing revenue declines and cautious market conditions. A recovery in EPS would depend on successful revenue stabilization, increased advertising spending, and improved customer engagement.