How does AMTM's Q2 forecast compare to past performance?

Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM) is poised for a positive Q2 performance, supported by several key indicators: 1. **Strong Financial Performance in Q1**: Amentum reported revenues of $3.4 billion, reflecting a 2.3% growth on a pro forma basis, and net income of $12 million, with an adjusted EBITDA of $262 million. The company's diluted earnings per share were $0.05, and adjusted diluted EPS stood at $0.51. 2. **Operational Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow**: Amentum generated $110 million in operating cash flow and $102 million in free cash flow, highlighting its ability to convert revenue into cash. 3. **Significant Backlog**: The company's backlog is substantial, amounting to $45 billion, which is a testament to its strong future revenue potential. 4. **Analyst Ratings and Price Target**: Recent analyst ratings and price targets are neutral to positive. Goldman Sachs and Cantor Fitzgerald have rated Amentum as "Neutral," while Raymond James and Truist have given it a "Buy" rating. The average price target is approximately $25. 5. **Upcoming Conference Call**: Amentum has scheduled a conference call for May 7, 2025, to discuss the Q2 financial results, which will provide further insights into the company's performance. 6. **Institutional Investor Interest**: Institutional investors have shown interest in Amentum, with Sei Investments Co. increasing its holdings by 17.9% in the fourth quarter, now owning 287,313 shares worth $6,042,000. 7. **Strategic Acquisitions and Contracts**: Amentum's merger with Jacobs has been finalized, and the company has secured significant contracts, including a $45 billion deal with the U.S. Department of Energy. In conclusion, Amentum's Q2 forecast is likely to reflect the company's strong financial performance, strategic acquisitions, and substantial backlog, which collectively support a positive outlook for the quarter.