But it seems all of them are at high price now? Which are the stocks prices which has came down significantly due to war and worth buying

You’re right that **most quality Singapore names are not “crisis cheap”** even with the current war headlines. When I look across a basket of major SG names (banks, REITs, industrials, travel), only a *few* have pulled back meaningfully; most are just 5–12% below their 52‑week highs. Here’s a visual of how far some well‑known SG stocks/REITs are below their 52‑week highs right now (negative = below high): ```reference [{"id":20,"type":"plotly-json"}] ``` From this group, the **only one with a clearly “significant” pullback** is: - **Sembcorp Industries (U96)** – about **25% below its 52‑week high**. The rest (Singapore Airlines, Mapletree Logistics, Ascendas REIT, CDL Hospitality, Ascott, Keppel, etc.) are mostly just **7–12% off highs**, which is normal volatility, not a war‑crash level. --- ## 1️⃣ Clear war‑linked laggard: Sembcorp Industries (U96) **What’s happened:** - Sembcorp has **underperformed** recently and is about **25% below its 52‑week high**. - Newsflow includes: - Concerns around its **UAE power and water plant** amid **Iran’s strikes** in the region; Sembcorp had to publicly rebut reports of damage and clarify that upcoming LNG cargoes aren’t from the Middle East. - Commentary that **Sembcorp (and Keppel) have underperformed in the wake of Iran attacks**, as investors worry about Middle East exposure and higher energy prices. - A large **A$6.5b Alinta Energy acquisition** funded by around **A$3b of loans**, adding leverage and execution risk. So a sizeable part of the derating is **geopolitics + deal risk**, not a collapse in the business. **Business quality snapshot (high‑level):** - Core businesses: **power, water, renewables, integrated urban solutions** across SG, SEA, Middle East, China, India, UK, etc. - Actively pivoting from coal/fossil to **renewables & energy transition**, which is a long‑term structural theme. - Profitability and margins are still healthy on trailing numbers (decent net margin, reasonable EV/EBIT multiple). **But is it actually “cheap”?** From one fundamental dataset: - A “price‑to‑fair‑value” metric still has Sembcorp trading **above** its modelled fair value (ratio > 1.0), not at a deep discount. - So what you’re seeing is more like **“high‑quality growth that has corrected”**, not a distressed value stock. **How it *could* fit you:** - If you believe: - The **Iran/Middle East war risk will eventually normalise**, and - Sembcorp’s **renewables + utilities** strategy will keep compounding earnings over the next 5–10 years, - Then today’s price can be seen as a **war‑driven entry point** into a long‑term SG industrial/energy transition play. **Key risks to respect:** - Escalation or prolonged conflict in the **Gulf/Middle East** impacting assets or fuel costs. - Integration/execution risk around **Alinta** and higher leverage. - Policy and regulatory shifts in energy/utility markets. Given all that, Sembcorp looks like the **most obvious “war‑affected discount”** among SG blue‑chips right now — **but still not a screaming deep value**, so position sizing and time horizon are crucial. --- ## 2️⃣ Other names with pullbacks (but not huge) From the same group of SG names, approximate distances from 52‑week highs: - **Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (BS6)** – ~**12% below** high - Shipbuilding & shipping‑linked; sensitive to global trade and shipping routes. War can both **hurt demand** and **boost freight rates**. - **Mapletree Logistics Trust (M44U)** – ~**11% below** high - Pan‑Asian logistics REIT; impacted more by **rates + global trade** than direct war damage. Pullback is modest. - **Ascendas REIT (A17U)** – ~**10% below** high - Business parks, industrial; mainly driven by **interest rates** and office/industrial demand. - **Singapore Airlines (C6L)** – ~**9% below** high - War in the Middle East affects flight paths and costs, but Business Times notes Asian carriers like SIA may actually **increase fares and cargo yields** and can weather the chaos. - **CapitaLand Ascott Trust (HMN)** & **CDL Hospitality Trusts (J85)** – ~**7–9% below** highs - Hospitality REITs tied to travel/tourism; war headlines and higher oil prices can briefly hit sentiment, but demand rebounds once routes reopen. These moves are **not big enough** to be called “bombed out” bargains. They’re essentially **good names trading a bit below recent peaks**, not “panic lows”. --- ## 3️⃣ What this means for your strategy 🧭 Given the data: - **There are not many SG names crushed purely by war**. SG is relatively insulated; war risk is mostly via **energy prices, shipping lanes, and regional sentiment**, not direct physical damage (Sembcorp’s UAE case is an exception, and even there they said no actual damage). - The only major blue‑chip laggard in our quick check is: - **Sembcorp (U96)** – ~25% below its high, partly war‑related and partly deal/leverage risk. - Everything else you mentioned (banks, quality REITs, big blue‑chips) is generally: - **Close to highs** or **only 7–12% off**, which is not obviously “cheap” just because of war. So if your goal is: ### A. **“War bargains” with upside when things calm down** You’re really looking at **higher‑risk bets** like: - **Sembcorp (U96)** – war + energy transition + leverage. - Possibly **Yangzijiang (BS6)** and **travel/hospitality** names (SIA, Ascott, CDLHT) if you think the conflict won’t derail global travel for long. For these, a sensible approach is: - Start with a **small position size** (e.g., 2–3% of portfolio per name). - Assume **high volatility** while war headlines dominate. - Treat them as multi‑year positions, not quick trades. ### B. **Stable SGD income and lower stress** For a more defensive **SGD core**, war or no war, you might still favour: - **Banks** (DBS, OCBC, UOB) – even if not “cheap”. - **High‑quality REITs** (Ascendas, Mapletree Logistics, CICT, etc.). These aren’t war bargains; they’re **steady core holdings**. You can: - DCA slowly rather than waiting for a big war crash that may not come. - Accept that you’re buying **quality at a fair price**, not deep value. --- ## 4️⃣ How to pick your “worth buying” list in practice When you look at SG stocks that are down and might be “worth it”, run them through this quick filter: 1. **Has the price fallen at least ~20–25% from its high?** - Otherwise, it’s just a normal pullback (7–10% is nothing for equities). 2. **Is the *reason* mainly sentiment/war, not a broken business?** - E.g. Sembcorp’s UAE headlines and war risk vs actual operational collapse. - SIA’s rerouting and higher oil vs permanent demand destruction. 3. **Do fundamentals still look okay?** - Profitable (positive net margins, decent cash flow). - Debt is **manageable**. - No massive, poorly priced acquisition that could blow up (or if there is, you’re consciously betting it works out, like Alinta for Sembcorp). 4. **Fits into your overall SG vs US and SGD vs USD plan** - Don’t let one war‑themed idea blow up your diversification or currency balance. --- ### Bottom line - **Yes**, there are a few SG stocks that have come down meaningfully with war headlines, **especially Sembcorp (U96)**. - **Most others** (hospitals, REITs, airlines, etc.) are only modestly off highs – not true “fire sale” levels. - “Worth buying” depends less on the war itself and more on whether you: - Understand the **business & risks**, and - Size the positions so that **another leg down doesn’t break your portfolio**. --- To tighten this for you: > Are you more interested in **(a) higher‑risk war‑discount plays** like Sembcorp and travel/hospitality, or **(b) more stable SGD income names** (banks/REITs) even if they’re not obviously cheap?