how high could lly and unh go by end of year

``` The deep research logic is organized as follows: Okay, let's tackle this question about how high Eli Lilly (LLY) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) could go by the end of 2025. The user is interested in their potential stock prices, so I need to look at the latest data and analyst projections. Starting with Eli Lilly. From the references, there's a lot of recent activity. The company just reported Q2 earnings with a 38% revenue jump and raised their full-year guidance. However, their stock dropped because of disappointing trial results for orforglipron. The trial showed a 12.4% weight loss, which was lower than expected. Analysts are mixed here. Some think it's still a first-mover advantage, but others are concerned about competition from Novo Nordisk. The key data points are the revenue growth of 23.3% and operating margins at 45.4%. The valuation from one source suggests a target of $1,076 by 2027, but the user is asking for 2025. The latest analyst target from August 8th is $895, which is a significant upside from the current price around $625.65. Also, the user mentioned XLV sector interest, so maybe considering sector performance could be relevant, but the question is specific to LLY and UNH. Now, UnitedHealth Group. They're dealing with DOJ investigations and antitrust issues. Their stock has been hit hard, down over 40% YTD. The DOJ settlement requires divesting 164 facilities, which might alleviate some pressure but the legal issues are still a concern. Analysts have lowered price targets, with Bernstein cutting it to $337 and Piper Sandler to $317. The forward P/E is around 13.3x, which is undervalued compared to the sector. However, the company faces headwinds like medical cost pressures and leadership changes. The user's interest in blue-chip stocks might find UNH attractive due to its size and market position, but the risks are high. The highest analyst target mentioned is $350, but recent cuts suggest a more cautious outlook. Putting it all together, for LLY, the upside is driven by their pipeline and recent guidance, but the orforglipron data is a risk. The $895 target is a key number. For UNH, the stock might stabilize if the DOJ issues are resolved, but the near-term outlook is uncertain. The highest targets are around $350, but considering the current price around $261, there's potential upside. However, the risks like legal issues and financial pressures could cap the upside. The user's focus on technical levels (like $140 for XLV) might not directly apply here, but the analysis should highlight the key price targets and risks for each stock. ``` ### **Conclusion** **Eli Lilly (LLY)** and **UnitedHealth Group (UNH)** present distinct upside potential by year-end 2025, driven by their respective market positions, financial health, and regulatory developments. Here’s a detailed breakdown: --- ### **Eli Lilly (LLY): Upside Potential** #### **Key Catalysts** 1. **Q2 2025 Results & Guidance**: - Revenue: $15.56B (38% YoY growth) . - EPS: $6.31 (61% YoY growth) . - Full-Year Guidance: - Revenue: $60B–$62B (up $1.5B midpoint) . - EPS: $21.75–$23.00 (up $0.97 midpoint) . 2. **Pipeline Strength**: - **Tirzepatide** (Mounjaro/Zepbound): Dominates diabetes/obesity markets with $5.2B–$3.4B Q2 sales . - **Oroforglipron**: Phase 3 data shows 12.4% weight loss vs. placebo , though below expectations . 3. **Valuation**: - Analyst Price Target: $895 (as of 2025-08-08) . - **Upside**: ~43% from current price (~$625.65) . #### **Risks** - Regulatory delays for orforglipron . - Competition from Novo Nordisk’s oral GLP-1 . #### **Conclusion** LLY could reach **$800–$900** by year-end 2025, driven by its dominant market position in diabetes/obesity and pipeline execution. --- ### **UnitedHealth Group (UNH): Upside Potential** #### **Key Catalysts** 1. **DOJ Settlement**: - Divestiture of 164 facilities to resolve Amedisys acquisition . - Civil penalty: $1.1M . 2. **Financial Health**: - Q2 2025 Revenue: $111.6B (13% YoY growth) . - Adjusted EPS: ~$16.00 (revised guidance) . 3. **Valuation**: - Analyst Price Targets: - Highest: $350 . - Average: ~$325 . - **Upside**: ~25% from current price (~$261.53) . #### **Risks** - DOJ investigation into Medicare billing practices . - High medical cost trends (84.8% medical cost ratio) . #### **Conclusion** UNH could stabilize near **$280–$300** by year-end 2025, contingent on regulatory clarity and cost management. --- ### **Final Takeaway** - **LLY**: High upside (~43%) with strong fundamentals but risks from competition. - **UNH**: Moderate upside (~25%) with long-term potential but near-term risks from regulatory challenges.