Hi Aime, please research the data of Gold after Non-Farm Payroll news in ten years. How plan Gold trading today?

``` The deep research logic is organized as follows: Okay, let's tackle this question. The user wants to know how gold reacts after Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) news over the past ten years and how to plan gold trading today. First, I need to check the provided references and background data. Looking at the references, there are several articles discussing the relationship between NFP and gold prices. For example, reference 2 mentions that there's no clear long-term relationship but short-term reactions exist. Reference 3 and 8 talk about how gold reacts inversely to NFP surprises, with stronger NFP leading to gold declines and weaker NFP causing gold to rise. However, the correlation isn't straightforward, especially during events like the COVID-19 crisis where gold didn't spike despite massive job losses. The user also asked for a trading plan today. The current date is 2025-08-01, so the latest NFP data is from July 2025, which came in at 147,000, beating the consensus of 110,000. This strong data likely caused gold to drop, as seen in reference 5 where gold fell 1% after the report. The upcoming NFP release is on August 1, 2025, but since the current time is before that, the user might be preparing for today's release. I need to structure the answer with a conclusion first, then detailed analysis. The conclusion should state that the relationship is inverse but not consistent, and the trading plan should consider the expected NFP number, market reaction, and technical levels. Also, include the visualization for the NFP data from the past ten years as per the user's query. Make sure to cite the references properly and use markdown tables where necessary. Also, add emojis to make it engaging. The user's profile doesn't have specific preferences, so stick to the general guidelines. ``` ### 🌟 **Conclusion** 🌟 The relationship between gold prices and Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data is **inverse but not consistently linear**. Strong NFP readings (indicating economic strength) tend to **depress gold prices**, while weak readings (economic uncertainty) can **bolster gold** as a safe-haven asset. However, this relationship is influenced by broader market dynamics, such as inflation expectations, Fed policy, and geopolitical risks. For today’s trading plan, **anticipate volatility** around the NFP release and **focus on technical levels** to capitalize on short-term price movements. --- ### 📊 **Analysis & Trading Plan** 📊 #### 1. **Historical Context (2015–2025)** | Metric | Description | Key Insight | |----------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------| | **NFP Impact on Gold** | Inverse correlation weakens over time . Strong NFP → Gold decline; Weak NFP → Gold rally. | Gold’s reaction is **short-term** and **volatility-driven** . | | **COVID-19 Exception** | NFP collapsed (-20.47M jobs in April 2020 ), but gold didn’t spike . | Economic crises can **override** NFP’s impact on gold . | | **Average Reaction** | Gold moves $7.2 up on NFP misses; $6.5 down on beats (35 NFP prints ). | **Magnitude** depends on market sentiment and prior expectations . | Non Farm Payroll in the past ten years |code|U.S.: New Non-Farm Employment: Current Month Value: Seasonally Adjusted|Date|market_code| |---|---|---|---| ||134000|20150831|| ||150000|20150930|| ||304000|20151031|| ||229000|20151130|| ||269000|20151231|| ||133000|20160131|| ||197000|20160229|| ||255000|20160331|| ||193000|20160430|| ||45000|20160531|| #### 2. **Today’s Setup (August 1, 2025)** | Data Point | Current Status (July 2025) | Implications for Gold | |---------------------------|--------------------------------------------|------------------------| | **NFP Reading** | Actual: 147K vs. Consensus: 110K | **Bearish** for gold (stronger-than-expected jobs). | | **Market Reaction** | Gold fell 1% post-release . | Further declines likely if NFP beats again . | | **Fed Policy Context** | Fed on hold at 5.50% ; inflation risks persist. | Gold may **resist** declines if inflation fears resurface . | #### 3. **Trading Strategy** | Scenario | Entry Signal | Target Levels | Risk Management | |---------------------------|--------------------------------------------|------------------------|-----------------| | **NFP Beat (110K+)** | Gold breaks below $3,270 (100-day SMA ). | Target: $3,200–$3,150. | Stop-loss at $3,300. | | **NFP Miss (110K–)** | Gold surges above $3,350 (resistance ). | Target: $3,400–$3,450. | Stop-loss at $3,300. | | **Neutral Outcome** | Gold consolidates near $3,270–$3,350. | Wait for breakout confirmation. | No position. | #### 4. **Key Risks** | Risk Factor | Probability (2015–2025 ) | Mitigation Strategy | |---------------------------|---------------------------------------|-----------------------| | **Unexpected Volatility** | High (35% of NFP prints deviate >1.35K ). | Use tight stops and trailing stops. | | **Fed Policy Shift** | Medium (Fed reacts to NFP trends ). | Monitor Fed commentary post-NFP. | | **Geopolitical Shocks** | Low (no major events flagged ). | Diversify with other safe-haven assets (e.g., USD, bonds). | --- ### 🎯 **Final Call** 🎯 **Go short gold** if NFP beats 110K; **go long** if it misses. Stay nimble and prioritize **risk management**. The NFP report is a **high-impact event**—prepare for **price swings**! 🚨