Is GOGO's Q1 2025 EPS forecast too optimistic?

**Gogo's Q1 2025 EPS forecast appears to be cautiously optimistic.** Here's why: 1. **Historical Context**: Gogo's Q4 2024 EPS was -$0.22, which is a significant improvement over the previous quarter's EPS of $0.11. This indicates a strong recovery or improvement in the company's financial performance, which could support the optimism around the Q1 2025 forecast. 2. **Revenue Trends**: Gogo's revenue for Q4 2024 was $137.8 million, which is a 40.9% year-over-year increase. This robust growth trajectory, coupled with the company's guidance for FY2025 revenue of $870-910 million, suggests a positive outlook for the future. 3. **Market Reception**: Analysts have reported revenue surprises, with Gogo's reported revenue for Q4 2024 exceeding expectations by $40 million. This positive reception could lend credibility to the company's forecasted performance for Q1 2025. 4. **Financial Metrics**: The estimated EPS for Q1 2025 is $0.05. Given that Gogo's EPS in Q4 2024 was -$0.22, the forecasted improvement to a positive EPS suggests that the company is anticipating better profitability in the upcoming quarter. 5. **Company's Guidance**: Gogo's guidance for FY2025 includes a revenue range that suggests a conservative yet achievable growth trajectory. The company is also projecting an adjusted EBITDA range of $200 million to $220 million, which indicates a focus on profitability alongside revenue growth. In conclusion, while it's important to consider that forecasts are inherently uncertain, the current evidence points to a cautiously optimistic outlook for Gogo's Q1 2025 EPS forecast. The company's recent performance, revenue growth, and market reception all support the notion that this forecast is reasonable and potentially achievable.