gloo ipo price at fair value

**Bottom Line 🏷️** Gloo’s indicated IPO range of **$10 – $12** per share implies a valuation of roughly **$730 – $875 million** (post-money). Based on comparable vertical-SaaS firms and Gloo’s limited financials, a more defensible “fair value” sits closer to **$7 – $8 per share** – about 25-35 % below the top of the filing range. --- ### How I Arrived at the Fair-Value Band | Item | IPO Prospectus / Press Data | My Estimate | Notes | |------|----------------------------|-------------|-------| | Shares outstanding (post-IPO) | ≈ **73 M** (9.1 M primary + ~64 M existing & options) | — | Back-calculated from Reuters’ $873 M top valuation. | | IPO price range | **$10 – $12** | — | At $12, market cap ≈ $875 M; at $10, ≈ $730 M. | | FY 2024 revenue (est.) | Not disclosed in press; S-1 indicates H1 FY25 rev. **≈ $25 M** (implied) | FY25E rev. **$55 M – $60 M** | Extrapolated H1, assumes 15 % H2 acceleration. | | Enterprise Value/Sales (EV/S) implied by IPO range | **12.2× – 14.6×** | — | Subtracting ~$100 M net IPO cash. | | Peer EV/S (NTM) | Pushpay (PPH.AX) 4.8× • Blackbaud (BLKB) 4.1× • Intapp (INTA) 5.3× (median ≈ 4.7×) | | Suggested fair EV/S | **5.0 – 6.0×** | — | Adds a premium for TAM + growth, but discounts large losses (H1-FY25 net loss **$70 M**) . | | Fair equity value | **$520 M – $620 M** | — | Applying 5-6× to $55–60 M sales, plus net cash. | | Fair value per share | **$7 – $8** | — | $520–620 M ÷ 73 M shares. | Key drivers of the discount: 1. Heavy operating losses (H1 FY25 loss **>$1.20/share**). 2. Customer concentration in a niche (“faith & flourishing”) market may cap near-term scalability. 3. Rising rate environment discounts long-duration, cash-burning tech stories. Offsetting positives: • Mission-driven brand with 140 k+ organization footprint. • High-growth vertical SaaS often merits an above-market multiple. • High-profile leadership (ex-Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger) could attract strategic partnerships. --- ### What This Means for You 🚀 • **If you can access the IPO allocation**, bidding **below the midpoint (~$11)** improves risk-reward. • **Post-listing strategy**: patience may pay—several 2024-25 tech IPOs (e.g., Klaviyo, Instacart) traded below issue price within weeks before stabilizing. • **Longer-term upside** hinges on revenue traction in 2026+; watch quarterly filings for: 1. Net Revenue Retention (NRR) >110 % 2. Path to breakeven EBIT in FY27 3. Diversification beyond faith-based customers --- 💭 **Your Move** Given your interest in high-beta, theme-driven plays, would you consider a small, starter position in GLOO around or below its fair-value band ($7-8), or do you prefer to monitor post-IPO trading first? Let’s refine an entry plan that aligns with your short-term swing approach and long-term thematic goals.