how does GE Vernova's backlog compare to Siemens and Mitsubishi?

GE Vernova’s backlog is now *on par with Siemens Energy’s and roughly twice Mitsubishi Heavy’s* in dollar terms, giving it one of the largest order books in global power equipment. --- ## 1. Snapshot: who has the bigger backlog? **Scope assumptions** - **“Siemens”** ⇒ Siemens Energy AG (power, grid, wind) – the closest peer to GE Vernova. - **“Mitsubishi”** ⇒ Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI), consolidated, which includes Energy Systems, defense, etc. ### GE Vernova (GEV) - **2023 (pre-spin Form 10):** GE Vernova disclosed **order backlog of about $116 billion as of Dec 31, 2023**. - **Latest commentary:** Recent analysis notes GE Vernova’s power segment is supported by a **total order backlog around $150 billion**, with the gas-turbine business alone “sold out” for years and an 83 GW turbine backlog into the late 2020s. - **Scale vs revenue:** GE cites roughly **$33 billion in annual revenue** for GE Vernova, so its backlog is roughly **3–4x one year’s revenue**. 👉 **Takeaway:** GE Vernova already has a multi‑year backlog roughly equal to or slightly above Siemens Energy’s, depending on the precise dates you compare. --- ### Siemens Energy - **FY 2023 year‑end:** Siemens Energy reported a **record order backlog of €112 billion at year‑end FY 2023**. - **More recent update:** Later reports cite a “record order backlog of nearly **€136 billion**,” driven by strong grid and conventional generation demand. - **Scale vs revenue:** FY 2023 revenue was about **€31 billion**, implying a **backlog ~3.5–4.5x annual revenue**. 👉 **Takeaway:** Siemens Energy’s backlog is **very similar in magnitude to GE Vernova’s** if you use current figures (both around the equivalent of ~$150 billion). --- ### Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) - **FY 2024 (year ended March 2025):** MHI’s FY2024 results presentation states that its **order backlog has now exceeded ¥10 trillion**. - **Revenue context:** MHI’s FY2023 consolidated revenue was about **¥4.66 trillion**. - **Backlog vs revenue:** >¥10T backlog vs ~¥4.7T revenue ⇒ roughly **2x annual revenue**. At an assumed ~¥150 = $1, ¥10T of backlog is on the order of **$65–70 billion** in USD terms—**roughly half the dollar size of GE Vernova’s or Siemens Energy’s backlog**, though still very large for a diversified industrial. 👉 **Takeaway:** In absolute USD terms, MHI’s backlog is **meaningfully smaller** than GE Vernova’s or Siemens Energy’s, but still covers multiple years of revenue. --- ## 2. Side‑by‑side (approximate, currency‑adjusted view) Using rough FX assumptions (EURUSD ≈ 1.1, JPYUSD ≈ 150): - **GE Vernova:** ≈ **$150B** backlog (recent commentary) - **Siemens Energy:** **€136B ≈ $150B** (recent record backlog) - **Mitsubishi Heavy:** **>¥10T ≈ $67B** backlog Here’s a simple visual of the latest backlogs in approximate USD terms: ```reference [{"data":{"application/vnd.plotly.v1+json":{"data":[{"name":"Order backlog","x":["GE Vernova","Siemens Energy","Mitsubishi Heavy 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comparison"},"xaxis":{"title":{"text":"Company"}},"yaxis":{"title":{"text":"Backlog (approx, USD bn)"}}},"config":{"modeBarButtonsToRemove":["toImage","lasso2d","sendDataToCloud","select2d","resetScale2d","zoom2d","pan2d"],"displaylogo":false,"plotlyServerURL":"https://plot.ly"}}},"id":36875805,"type":"plotly-json"}] ``` --- ## 3. How to interpret this for competitiveness **1. GE Vernova vs Siemens Energy** - Both have **very large, multi‑year backlogs** roughly ~3–4x their current annual revenues. - Siemens Energy’s backlog skews heavily toward **grid technologies and large turbine projects**, while GE Vernova’s is a mix of **gas power, grid, and wind**, with gas turbines particularly supply‑constrained and effectively “sold out” in some configurations. - From a *backlog depth* standpoint, **neither has a clear edge**: they are **peers at the top of the pack**. **2. Mitsubishi Heavy vs the other two** - MHI’s **>¥10T backlog** includes not only energy, but also **defense, aerospace, and industrial systems**, so it’s less pure‑play power generation. - Even so, in USD terms its backlog is **roughly half** that of GE Vernova or Siemens Energy. - Relative to its own revenue, backlog is still **>2x**, so it also has **strong visibility**, just not as extreme as the two pure‑play energy OEMs. **3. Caveats** - **Definitions differ:** Each company’s “order backlog” includes slightly different mixes of equipment vs long‑term service contracts, and may exclude or include unconsolidated JVs. Direct comparisons are approximate, not GAAP‑perfect. - **Segment mix:** For MHI especially, only a portion of the backlog is directly comparable to GE Vernova’s / Siemens Energy’s power and grid businesses. --- **Net conclusion:** On backlog alone, GE Vernova stands shoulder‑to‑shoulder with Siemens Energy at the very top of the global power OEM pack, while Mitsubishi Heavy’s backlog is smaller in dollar terms but still represents several years of revenue and a very healthy book of long‑term work. --- What are you trying to decide with this comparison—position sizing in GEV vs its peers, or just sanity‑checking the strength of its order book before digging deeper into margins and execution risk?