How does FN's Q3 2025 forecast compare to past surprises?

Fabrinet's (NYSE:FN) Q3 2025 forecast does not appear to have exceeded past surprises. In fact, the latest guidance falls slightly below the consensus estimates. 1. **Q3 2025 Guidance**: Fabrinet provided EPS guidance of $2.430 to $2.510 for Q3 2025, compared to the consensus estimate of $2.700. This indicates that the company expects to miss the earnings per share estimate by approximately $0.27. 2. **Historical Performance**: In the past, Fabrinet has issued guidance that has been in line with, or slightly below, market expectations. For instance, in the previous quarter, the company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $2.38, which missed the consensus estimate of $2.48 by $0.10. This recent trend suggests that Fabrinet's guidance is conservative and may not exceed market expectations. 3. **Market Reaction**: The market has reacted negatively to the news of Fabrinet's Q3 2025 guidance, with the company's stock price declining by 11.02% during mid-day trading on the day the guidance was released. This decline suggests that investors may have concerns about the company's ability to meet its earnings target. In conclusion, Fabrinet's Q3 2025 forecast does not appear to be a surprise in either direction, as it is in line with the company's historical performance and market expectations. The company's conservative guidance may be a result of prudent management decisions, taking into account potential challenges and uncertainties in the market.