What factors could drive USB's earnings surprises in 2024?

U.S. Bancorp (USB) could experience earnings surprises in 2024 due to several key factors: 1. **Interest Income Growth**: The bank's net interest income has seen a significant increase, driven by higher interest rates and higher revolving balances in Card Services, partially offset by lower deposit balances. This trend, if sustained, could positively contribute to earnings growth. 2. **Wealth Management and Investment Banking Fees**: Non-interest revenue has risen, largely due to higher asset management and investment banking fees. Continued strong performance in these areas could boost earnings. 3. **Loan Growth**: Total loans have increased, with commercial loans recording a notable rise. As the economy continues to recover, loan growth could accelerate, providing another earnings catalyst. 4. **Digital Transformation and Operational Efficiency**: USB has been focusing on digital innovation and enhancing client engagement. Operational efficiencies gained from technological advancements could reduce costs and increase profitability, positively impacting earnings. 5. **Strategic Initiatives**: The bank's strategic focus on expanding its digital offerings and enhancing client engagement has contributed to robust performance. Ongoing implementation of strategic initiatives could drive future growth and earnings. 6. **Capital Management**: USB has maintained a strong capital position, as seen by the stress capital buffer received from the Federal Reserve. Effective capital management could allow the bank to capitalize on growth opportunities while returning value to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. In summary, U.S. Bancorp's potential earnings surprises in 2024 will depend on the sustainability of interest income growth, continued success in wealth management and loan growth, and the bank's ability to capitalize on strategic initiatives and operational efficiencies.