What factors drive MAR's earnings surprises?

Marriott International (MAR) has experienced varying expectations and performance in earnings reports, with a general trend of higher revenues driving the outcomes. The key factors contributing to Marriott's earnings surprises include: 1. **Leisure Demand and Bookings**: Marriott's performance is likely to have benefited from pent-up leisure demand, solid global booking trends, and unit expansion efforts. This is particularly notable given the post-pandemic travel resurgence, where leisure travel has been a key driver of the industry's recovery. 2. **Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) and Average Daily Rate (ADR)**: The company anticipates a 4-5% year-over-year increase in worldwide system-wide RevPAR for the first quarter, with specific market expectations showing rises in various regions, including the U.S. and Canada, international markets, and Asia Pacific. Higher ADRs driven by strong demand, especially from small and medium-sized businesses, further support revenue growth. 3. **Global Lodging Portfolio Expansion**: Marriott's strategic expansions, such as discussions for projects like Citi Express in the Caribbean and Latin America and Four Points Express in Europe, are likely to have contributed to hotel openings during the first quarter, enhancing revenue potential. 4. **Marriott Bonvoy Loyalty Program**: The continued strength of the Marriott Bonvoy loyalty program is expected to have aided the company’s top line, offering recurring revenue and customer loyalty that boosts occupancy rates and average spending. 5. **Economic Conditions and Business Travel**: While not directly impacting revenue, the overall economic climate and business travel trends can influence Marriott's earnings. As businesses increasingly resume operations and employees return to work, demand for hotel bookings, especially for corporate stays, is expected to rise, further supporting revenue growth. In summary, Marriott's earnings surprises are primarily driven by robust leisure demand, strategic expansions, and strong revenue-generating initiatives like RevPAR and ADR increases, along with the continued success of its loyalty program and favorable economic conditions.