EXC, is this a good short term a good long-term or is it not a good investment at all?
10/26/2024 10:30am
**Exelon (EXC) appears to be a stable long-term investment**, but may not be the most compelling short-term play due to its industry and current market conditions. Here's a detailed analysis:
1. **Financial Performance**:
- Exelon's recent financials show a solid revenue growth rate of 11.27% year-over-year, indicating a strong market presence.
- The company's net income has grown by 30.61%, which is a significant increase and suggests improved profitability.
- However, the diluted EPS has decreased by 31.82%, which could be a red flag for some investors, especially those looking for consistent earnings growth.
2. **Growth Rates and Trends**:
- Over the last three years, Exelon has shown a revenue CAGR of 10.06%, a net income CAGR of 12.82%, and a diluted EPS CAGR of 15.97%. These figures indicate a consistent and positive growth trajectory.
- The company's earnings growth has been robust, which is a positive sign for long-term investors.
3. **Valuation Metrics**:
- Exelon's P/E ratio stands at 16.55, which is relatively high, suggesting that the stock may be somewhat overvalued compared to the industry average. However, a P/E ratio this high can also indicate that the market expects high future earnings growth.
- The P/B ratio is 1.53, which is moderate, and the P/S ratio is 1.76, both of which are reasonable given the company's industry and growth prospects.
4. **Industry and Market Position**:
- Exelon operates in the Electric Utilities industry, which is generally considered stable and defensive. This can be advantageous during economic downturns.
- The company's high dividend yield of 3.68% is a positive feature, especially for income-focused investors, and suggests a commitment to returning value to shareholders.
5. **Shareholder Dynamics**:
- Institutional ownership is high at 86%, which indicates strong confidence from large investors. This can be a positive signal for the company's future prospects.
- The consensus rating from analysts is "Hold", which suggests that while the stock is not seen as a strong buy, it also isn't considered a sell, indicating a neutral to positive view of the stock.
6. **Earnings and Revenue Expectations**:
- Analysts expect Exelon to announce earnings of $0.68 per share for the quarter, which is a notable figure given the previous quarter's earnings exceeded expectations.
- The company has set guidance for FY 2024 EPS of $2.40-$2.50, which, if met, could provide a benchmark for future performance.
In conclusion, Exelon shows signs of being a good long-term investment due to its consistent growth, stable industry, and attractive dividend. However, the high P/E ratio and recent decrease in diluted EPS may deter some investors, and the "Hold" consensus suggests that while it has potential, it may not be an immediate standout for short-term gains. Investors should consider their investment horizon and risk tolerance before making a decision.