EPS coming estimate of TSM

``` The deep research logic is organized as follows: Okay, let's tackle the user's question about TSM's estimated EPS. First, I need to check the references provided. The user is asking for the EPS estimates, so I'll look through the references for any data related to EPS projections. Looking at Reference 1, there's a table with TSM's estimated EPS for 2025-06-30, which is $2.36. That's a specific figure, so that's a key point. Then, Reference 3 has more detailed estimates. It mentions the current quarter (Sep 2025) estimate as $2.64, next quarter (Dec 2025) as $2.42, current year (2025) as $9.75, and next year (2026) as $11.06. These are more recent estimates, so they should take precedence over the older data in Reference 1. Also, Reference 8 from Bernstein mentions TSMC's Q2 2025 EPS of $2.47, which aligns with the data in Reference 3. The user's profile shows interest in short-term price targets and momentum, so highlighting the latest estimates and recent performance is important. I need to structure the answer starting with a conclusion, then detailed analysis. The conclusion should state the current estimates clearly. Then, in the analysis, break down the quarterly and annual estimates, compare them to historical data, and mention factors like AI growth and capital expenditures that support these estimates. Also, note any recent analyst actions, like Bernstein's price target, which could influence the stock's momentum. Make sure to cite the references correctly using , , etc. Also, check if there are any visualizations needed. The user's query is about TSM's EPS estimates, so the "TSM Estimate EPS" query in Reference 1 should have a visualization. I'll need to include that after the relevant section. I should avoid mentioning irrelevant data, like the other companies in the references, unless they directly impact TSM's EPS. The user's focus is on short-term price targets, so emphasizing the latest estimates and recent financial health is crucial. Also, since the user is interested in technical analysis, maybe touch on how these EPS figures could affect stock price momentum. Putting it all together, the answer should start with the conclusion, then a table of the estimates, followed by analysis points supported by the references. Make sure to use markdown tables and include the visualization as specified. ``` ### Conclusion 🎯 **TSMC (TSM) is projected to report an estimated EPS of $2.36 for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025, with a strong upward revision trajectory driven by AI-related revenue growth and strategic investments in advanced manufacturing.** Recent data shows the company’s Q2 2025 EPS surged 61% YoY to $2.47, aligning with its leadership in the AI semiconductor cycle. Below is a detailed breakdown of the latest EPS estimates and key drivers. --- ### 📊 **TSMC EPS Estimates (2025-2026)** | Metric | Current Qtr (Sep 2025) | Next Qtr (Dec 2025) | Current Year (2025) | Next Year (2026) | |--------------------------|--------------------------|------------------------|-----------------------|-------------------| | **EPS Estimate** | $2.64 | $2.42 | $9.75 | $11.06 | | **YoY Growth** | +36.12% | +8.00% | +38.54% | +13.38% | | **Surprise % (Q2 2025)** | N/A | N/A | +6.79% | N/A | --- ### 📊 **Key Drivers of TSMC’s EPS Growth** 1. **AI-Driven Revenue Surge**: - AI-related revenues tripled in 2024 and are expected to double again in 2025, with a 40% CAGR over the next five years . - Advanced 3nm and 5nm nodes now account for 58% of wafer sales, driving a 44% YoY revenue jump in Q2 2025 . 2. **Capital Expenditure (CapEx) Expansion**: - TSMC plans to invest $38–$42 billion in 2025, up from $29.8 billion in 2024, with 70% focused on advanced manufacturing . - The company is accelerating its U.S. fabs (Arizona) to meet demand for AI chips, with 3nm production expected by 2027 . 3. **Profitability and Margin Expansion**: - Gross margin reached 58.3% in Q2 2025, up 2.8 percentage points YoY . - Operating expenses remain disciplined, with a 1.8% YoY decline despite increased R&D . --- ### 📊 **Risks and Market Sentiment** - **Geopolitical Risks**: TSMC faces competition from U.S.-based fabs (e.g., Intel, Samsung) and potential supply chain disruptions . - **Valuation Concerns**: The stock has surged 18% YTD, raising concerns about short-term volatility . - **Analyst Activity**: Recent upgrades (Bernstein: Outperform, $249 target ) and downgrades (Viking Global: -559k shares ) highlight mixed sentiment. --- ### 📊 **Takeaway for Investors** TSMC’s EPS estimates reflect its dominance in the AI semiconductor cycle, but short-term risks like geopolitical competition and high valuations warrant caution. For momentum-focused traders, the stock’s technical strength (18% YTD rally) and analyst price targets ($220–$249) suggest upside potential. Stay vigilant for upcoming earnings reports and U.S. fab updates. 🚀