Is EL's Q3 2025 forecast a buying opportunity?

**The Estee Lauder Companies (EL) does not appear to offer a buying opportunity in Q3 2025 based on current market indicators and analysis.** Here's why: 1. **Recent Performance and Market Sentiment**: - Estee Lauder's stock has hit a 52-week low, reflecting significant market challenges and a decline of -58.16% over the past year. - The stock is trading below its key moving averages, such as the 5-Day, 10-Day, and 20-Day averages, which typically indicates a bearish trend. - The MACD is negative, and the RSI is low at 15.64, suggesting the stock is oversold. While this could sometimes precede a rebound, it also indicates significant momentum has not yet reversed. - The KDJ indicator is at 13.53, which is quite low and could suggest that the stock is currently oversold and may rebound. However, this indicator alone is not a definitive signal for a buying opportunity. |code|Ticker|Name|Date|Moving Average|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---| |EL|EL.N|The Estee Lauder|20250403|65.2480|169| |code|Ticker|Name|Date|Boll|RSI|KDJ|MACD|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |EL|EL.N|The Estee Lauder|20250404|66.2250|15.6379|13.5333|-1.9266|169| 2. **Fibonacci Retracement Levels**: - The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level for the past year is $112.31, which is significantly higher than the current trading price of $52.93. This suggests that the stock may have further to fall based on Fibonacci analysis. - The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level is $99.52, which also indicates a potential area of resistance if the stock were to reverse. 3. **Analyst Ratings and Price Targets**: - Despite the challenges, Estee Lauder maintains a Buy rating from DA Davidson with a price target of $81. This suggests that analysts see potential in the stock, but given the current prices, this target implies a substantial upside. - However, the stock's recent decline and the broader market conditions should be considered. If the market environment does not improve or if the company's performance does not meet expectations, the stock may not reach the analyst's target price in the near term. 4. **Legal and Operational Risks**: - The company is facing a class-action lawsuit related to its sales practices in China, which could lead to further legal and financial uncertainties. - The ongoing volatility in China and the Asia travel retail market remains a significant risk for Estee Lauder's financial performance. In conclusion, while the Buy rating and price target from DA Davidson suggest a potential upside, the current technical indicators, market conditions, and legal risks do not support a buying opportunity in Q3 2025. Investors should closely monitor the company's performance, market conditions, and any strategic developments that could impact the stock's trajectory.