CTMX vs BDTX

**Conclusion 🏁** CytomX Therapeutics (CTMX) offers a higher scientific upside thanks to its first-in-class Probody® platform and a lead asset (CX-2051) that could break new ground in colorectal cancer, but it trades at a steeper risk profile. Black Diamond Therapeutics (BDTX) is steadier, cash-rich, and already in Phase 2 data for its lead EGFR inhibitor BDTX-1535, yet its near-term catalysts are fewer and less differentiated. For investors comfortable with biotech volatility, CTMX’s asymmetric reward may justify a higher allocation; otherwise, BDTX provides a more defensive, cash-flow-oriented exposure to oncology innovation. 🚀⚖️ --- ### 1. Company Snapshot 🧬 • **CTMX** – Clinical-stage oncology company focused on conditionally activated biologics; flagship program CX-2051 targets EpCAM in solid tumors . • **BDTX** – Clinical-stage oncology firm developing MasterKey inhibitors; lead asset BDTX-1535 is a fourth-generation EGFR inhibitor in Phase 2 for NSCLC and Phase 1 for glioblastoma . --- ### 2. Financial Health 💰 | Metric (Q2-25) | CTMX | BDTX | Take-away | |---|---|---|---| | Cash & Equivalents | $158.1 M; runway to Q2-27 | $142.8 M; runway to Q4-27 | Both have multi-year cash cushions, but CTMX slightly richer. | | Net Income (MRQ) | –$0.15 M | –$10.56 M | CTMX burning less cash per dollar of revenue. | | Revenue (MRQ) | $18.7 M (-25% YoY) | $70 M (flat YoY) | BDTX scales faster; CTMX still pre-revenue. | |code|Ticker|Name|Date|Total Revenue YoY|Total Revenue|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |CTMX|CTMX.O|CytomX Therapeutics|2024 Q3|26.713159490600365|3.3432E7|185| |CTMX|CTMX.O|CytomX Therapeutics|2024 Q4|43.16909084075619|3.8093E7|185| |CTMX|CTMX.O|CytomX Therapeutics|2025 Q1|22.801051539927165|5.0917E7|185| |CTMX|CTMX.O|CytomX Therapeutics|2025 Q2|-25.709735217997213|1.8658E7|185| |code|Ticker|Name|Date|Diluted EPS YoY|Diluted EPS|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |CTMX|CTMX.O|CytomX Therapeutics|2024 Q3|75.00000000000001|0.07|185| |CTMX|CTMX.O|CytomX Therapeutics|2025 Q1|58.82352941176471|0.27|185| |CTMX|CTMX.O|CytomX Therapeutics|2025 Q2|100|0|185| |code|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Income YoY|Net Income|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |BDTX|BDTX.O|Black Diamond|2024 Q3|32.381449124179596|-1.5557E7|185| |BDTX|BDTX.O|Black Diamond|2024 Q4|17.637056883759275|-1.5985E7|185| |BDTX|BDTX.O|Black Diamond|2025 Q1|410.24417009602195|5.6542E7|185| |BDTX|BDTX.O|Black Diamond|2025 Q2|46.95363905771259|-1.0561E7|185| **Insight:** CTMX’s burn rate is lower relative to revenue, giving it flexibility for R&D; BDTX’s larger top line funds its own pipeline but leaves less dry powder for surprises. 📉➡️📈 --- ### 3. Pipeline & Near-Term Catalysts 🚦 | Asset | Target / Modality | Status | Next Key Date | Potential Impact | |---|---|---|---|---| | CX-2051 | EpCAM ADC (Probody®) | Phase 1a dosing complete; Phase 1b readout expected H1-25 | H1-25 | First-in-class proof; could open multiple solid-tumor lines. | | CX-801 | IFN-α2b T-cell engager | Phase 1 combo with PD-1; safety data expected 2026 | 2026 | Early-stage; lower near-term impact. | | BDTX-1535 | EGFR Mutated NSCLC / GBM | Phase 2 relapsed; Phase 2 first-line data due Q1-26 | Q4-25 (ORR disclosure) | 36% ORR in relapsed; could pivot to first-line if positive. | | BDTX-4933 | RAF/RAS Mutant Solid Tumors | Phase 1; outlicensed to Servier | 2026 (registrational path) | De-prioritized to conserve cash. | **Take-away:** CTMX’s Phase 1a data is the bigger near-term catalyst, while BDTX’s Phase 2 ORR is more incremental. 📊 --- ### 4. Valuation & Street View 📈 | Metric | CTMX | BDTX | Comment | |---|---|---|---| | Consensus Rating | Buy (avg PT $5.30) | Strong Buy (avg PT $17 → $15 post-acquisition) | Street sees bigger upside in CTMX. | | P/E (TTM) | 9.97 | 13.41 | CTMX cheaper on earnings. | | P/B | 3.99 | 1.46 | BDTX trades at a discount to book. | | Beta | 2.18 | 0.95 (BDIMF) | CTMX far more volatile. | |code|Ticker|Name|Date|P/E(TTM)|PEG|Price to Book Ratio|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |CTMX|CTMX.O|CytomX Therapeutics|20240927|5.66994|-1.656964|-3.0019252954174274|185| |CTMX|CTMX.O|CytomX Therapeutics|20240930|5.575441|-1.631746|-2.9518932071604698|185| |CTMX|CTMX.O|CytomX Therapeutics|20241001|5.433692|-1.590261|-2.876845074775034|185| |CTMX|CTMX.O|CytomX Therapeutics|20241002|5.433692|-1.590261|-2.876845074775034|185| |CTMX|CTMX.O|CytomX Therapeutics|20241003|5.339193|-1.562605|-2.8268129865180773|185| |CTMX|CTMX.O|CytomX Therapeutics|20241004|5.433692|-1.590261|-2.876845074775034|185| |CTMX|CTMX.O|CytomX Therapeutics|20241007|5.528191|-1.617918|-2.9268771630319916|185| |CTMX|CTMX.O|CytomX Therapeutics|20241008|5.386443|-1.576433|-2.8518290306465555|185| |CTMX|CTMX.O|CytomX Therapeutics|20241009|5.433692|-1.590261|-2.876845074775034|185| |CTMX|CTMX.O|CytomX Therapeutics|20241010|5.291944|-1.548776|-2.8017969423895988|185| |code|Ticker|Name|Date|P/E(TTM)|PEG|Price to Book Ratio|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |BDTX|BDTX.O|Black Diamond|20240927|-2.995484|-0.302872|2.152887344286216|185| |BDTX|BDTX.O|Black Diamond|20240930|-3.080462|-0.311558|2.213962162563839|185| |BDTX|BDTX.O|Black Diamond|20241001|-2.952995|-0.298666|2.1223499351474047|185| |BDTX|BDTX.O|Black Diamond|20241002|-2.821987|-0.285416|2.0281929236360687|185| |BDTX|BDTX.O|Black Diamond|20241003|-2.591837|-0.262139|1.8627819574675064|185| |BDTX|BDTX.O|Black Diamond|20241004|-2.655571|-0.268585|1.9085880711757235|185| |BDTX|BDTX.O|Black Diamond|20241007|-2.591837|-0.262139|1.8627819574675064|185| |BDTX|BDTX.O|Black Diamond|20241008|-2.517481|-0.254618|1.809341491474586|185| |BDTX|BDTX.O|Black Diamond|20241009|-2.51394|-0.25426|1.806796707379685|185| |BDTX|BDTX.O|Black Diamond|20241010|-2.436044|-0.246382|1.7508114572918636|185| **Insight:** CTMX’s lower P/E masks higher volatility; BDTX looks cheaper on book but trades at a discount to its cash runway. 🎯 --- ### 5. Risk-Reward Matrix ⚠️ | Factor | CTMX | BDTX | |---|---|---| | Catalyst Risk | Phase 1a efficacy readout; any toxicity could delay | Phase 2 ORR; competition from JNJ/AZN | | Execution Risk | Small team; reliant on partnerships (Amgen, Astellas) | Larger team but limited pipeline; cash tied to single asset | | Valuation Risk | High beta, analyst upgrades can swing price | Post-acquisition dilution risk, merger integration | | Upside | First-in-class ADC; multiple targets in pipeline | Cash-rich, diversified oncology assets | --- ### 6. Portfolio Fit & Actionable Ideas 🎯 1. **Growth-Focused Investors:** Allocate a smaller sleeve (≤5%) to CTMX for asymmetric upside; pair with defensive holdings. 2. **Steady-Handed Investors:** Emphasize BDTX for its cash cushion and clearer cash-flow trajectory; consider waiting for Phase 2 first-line data to confirm thesis. 3. **Hedge Strategy:** Long CTMX vs. short a basket of legacy oncology names can balance innovation with sector stability. --- **Bottom Line 😊** CTMX is the high-octane, science-driven pick with a shot at blockbuster potential, while BDTX is the reliable, cash-rich choice anchored by tangible clinical data. Align your position size with your risk tolerance and investment horizon, and remember that biotech can reward patience—but only if you stay disciplined. 🌟📈