considering global de-dollarization from groups like BRICS, ASEAN, and GCC plus weakening economies in Japan, China, Russia, Austria and others what % would you say of possibility for global depression especially since dxy is lowest since 1973

The possibility of a global depression amid de-dollarization and economic challenges is a complex issue with multifaceted factors at play. While de-dollarization movements, particularly among groups like BRICS, ASEAN, and GCC, signify a shift in global economic dynamics, the likelihood of a global depression depends on various economic, political, and geopolitical factors. Here's a nuanced analysis: 1. **Implications of de-dollarization**: - De-dollarization can lead to a reduction in the dominance of the US dollar in global trade and finance. This shift can have both positive and negative effects. On one hand, it may reduce financial risks and foster a more equitable global economic structure. On the other hand, it can lead to market inefficiencies and short-term instability as alternative currencies gain prominence. 2. **Global economic health**: The current economic environment, including the weakening economies in Japan, China, Russia, Austria, and others, contributes to a complex landscape. Economic challenges such as currency risks, debt issues, and inflationary pressures can create vulnerabilities that may lead to a global downturn if not managed properly. 3. **DXY and global economic sentiment**: The US Dollar Index (DXY) is a key indicator of the dollar's strength and is at its lowest since 1973. Historically, a weaker dollar can lead to increased costs for importing goods, which can exacerbate inflationary pressures and destabilize economies, particularly in commodity-dependent countries. 4. **Geopolitical factors**: The de-dollarization efforts are partly driven by geopolitical concerns, such as the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic. These factors have led to a loss of confidence in the dollar as a safe-haven currency and have accelerated the push for alternative currencies and payment systems. 5. **Potential for global depression**: While de-dollarization is a significant trend, it does not inherently imply a global depression. The actualization of such a scenario would require a confluence of severe economic shocks, political instability, and global coordination failures. The impact of de-dollarization is uncertain, and its effects on the broader economy depend on how countries manage the transition to new currencies and payment systems. In conclusion, while de-dollarization and the current economic fragilities create a challenging environment, it is premature to conclude that a global depression is inevitable. The outcome will depend on how countries navigate these changes, manage their economies, and maintain global economic cooperation. The possibility of a global depression remains a risk, but it is not a foregone conclusion without further consideration of economic policies, global trade dynamics, and geopolitical developments.