Can CNQ sustain its earnings momentum into 2024?

**Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) faces significant challenges in sustaining its earnings momentum into 2024**, as evidenced by the following points: 1. **Earnings Decline**: CNQ experienced a substantial decline in net income and revenue compared to the previous year. The company's net income dropped by 60.28%, and its total revenue declined by 9.14%. This trend indicates a lack of earnings momentum heading into 2024. |code|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Income YoY|Total Revenue YoY|Diluted EPS YoY|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |CNQ|CNQ.N|Canadian Natural Resources|2024 Q1|-45.19696595782547|-4.578596312198481|-43.88938984570809|169| |CNQ|CNQ.N|Canadian Natural Resources|2024 Q2|13.352792553160286|10.92565128078356|17.208329714832406|169| |CNQ|CNQ.N|Canadian Natural Resources|2024 Q3|-3.1559227187480476|-9.966680819811227|0.1776333394768641|169| |CNQ|CNQ.N|Canadian Natural Resources|2024 Q4|-60.28455589682697|-9.135193623535441|-59.08471096466238|169| 2. **Missed Earnings Estimates**: CNQ missed earnings per share (EPS) estimates, with a reported EPS of $0.66 compared to a consensus estimate of $0.69. This missed expectation could dampen investor confidence and make it difficult for the company to sustain its earnings momentum. 3. **Analyst Price Target and Consensus Rating**: The average analyst price target for CNQ is $61.2, with a consensus rating of "Buy". While this suggests some optimism among analysts, the price target does not indicate a strong upside potential for sustained earnings growth. 4. **Market Volatility and External Factors**: The energy sector, of which CNQ is a part, is inherently volatile and sensitive to global economic conditions and geopolitical events. Ongoing tariff and trade wars, along with the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports, add uncertainty to CNQ's earnings outlook. 5. **Dividend Yield and Financial Resilience**: CNQ has maintained a robust dividend yield of 5.48%, reflecting the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders. The company's financial strength, as indicated by its ability to generate free cash flow and moderate debt levels, could support its dividend payments and overall financial resilience. In conclusion, while CNQ's financial metrics show significant room for improvement, the company's strong dividend yield and financial resilience could help it navigate the challenges ahead. However, the decline in earnings and missed estimates suggest that sustaining earnings momentum into 2024 will be difficult without a clear improvement in operational performance and market conditions.