How does CI's 2024 performance compare to forecasts?

Cigna's 2024 performance shows a slight miss in EPS but beats revenue expectations, reflecting operational challenges amid strong revenue growth. 1. **Revenue Performance**: - Cigna's total revenue for 2024 was $244.38 billion, slightly below the cumulative revenue of $247.1 billion projected by analysts. This indicates a strong revenue achievement, with a growth rate of 0.25%. - The company’s revenue growth rate of 0.25% is modest compared to the 27% increase in total revenues reported by Cigna, suggesting that while overall revenue was robust, it was slightly underwhelming compared to heightened market expectations. 2. **Earnings Performance**: - Net income for the year was $3.78 billion, with a growth rate of -0.3%, indicating a slight decline in earnings year-over-year. - The diluted EPS was $12.12, which is essentially flat compared to the previous year, missing the forecasted growth. - Analysts had high expectations, anticipating a more significant earnings per share growth, given the positive outlook and rating changes in early 2024. 3. **Market Reaction and Analysts' Insights**: - Despite the revenue beat, Cigna’s stock dropped due to higher-than-expected medical costs and margin pressures, leading to a notable miss on EPS. - Analysts had anticipated stronger EPS growth, with expectations for a 12.6% increase in near-term earnings. The actual EPS of $12.12 represented a modest increase, failing to meet these heightened forecasts. 4. **Conclusion**: While Cigna's 2024 financial results showcased strong revenue growth, the company slightly missed EPS expectations and experienced a decline in net income. These factors, combined with higher operational costs, contributed to a negative market reaction, reflecting investor concerns over profitability and margin pressures.