Can CG maintain its Q1 2025 EPS forecast?

**The Carlyle Group's (CG) likelihood of maintaining its Q1 2025 EPS forecast appears optimistic but is subject to several considerations.** Here's an analysis based on current financial data and recent news: 1. **Recent Performance and Growth Rates**: - CG's MRQ (2024Q4) showed a significant YoY growth in net income of 133.91% and a revenue growth of 11.48%. The Diluted EPS grew by 129.69%, indicating a strong earnings trajectory. - The company's RSI as of April 7, 2025, is 28.45, suggesting the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, which is generally favorable for maintaining forecasts. |code|Ticker|Name|Date|RSI|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---| |CG|CG.O|The Carlyle Group|20250404|22.1213|185| |code|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Income YoY|Total Revenue YoY|Diluted EPS YoY|market_code| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |CG|CG.O|The Carlyle Group|2024 Q1|-21.14924181963288|-19.86030267753201|-35.71428571428572|185| |CG|CG.O|The Carlyle Group|2024 Q2|338.11802232854865|131.4866911923826|248.14814814814815|185| |CG|CG.O|The Carlyle Group|2024 Q3|454.6846846846847|267.73653363103546|640.9090909090909|185| |CG|CG.O|The Carlyle Group|2024 Q4|133.91018946740266|11.477002807169077|129.6875|185| 2. **Analyst Sentiments and Recent Developments**: - Analysts have provided a consistent positive sentiment, with a "buy" rating and a target price of $40.00, which is above the current price, indicating confidence in future performance. - Institutional investments, including a new stake by Machina Capital S.A.S. and increased holdings by Weiss Asset Management LP, demonstrate confidence in CG's potential. 3. **Challenges and Uncertainties**: - CG faced a significant earnings decline in Q2 2023, which could indicate volatility and challenges in maintaining consistent growth. - The company's net margin was negative at 23.04%, which may impact profitability and EPS stability. 4. **Strategic Position and Future Prospects**: - CG's focus on fundraising and management fees has been a positive aspect, with the company exceeding expectations in these areas. - The company's EPS projections for 2024 and 2025 are $3.66 and $4.62, respectively, suggesting a growth trajectory that CG aims to maintain. In conclusion, while CG's recent financial performance and analyst sentiments provide a positive backdrop for maintaining its EPS forecast, the company's past earnings volatility and current negative net margin suggest caution. The likelihood of maintaining the Q1 2025 EPS forecast depends on CG's ability to sustain its current growth trajectory, manage potential challenges, and capitalize on its strategic strengths.