Is CDTX's Q1 2025 earnings forecast optimistic?

**CDTX's Q1 2025 earnings forecast is not currently optimistic**, based on the available data and recent news. Here's an analysis to support this conclusion: 1. **Recent Financial Performance**: Cidara Therapeutics reported a wider fourth-quarter loss in Q4 2024, with a net loss of $52.3 million and a loss of $5.37 per share. This is a significant increase from the previous year's loss of $3.2 million, primarily due to higher research and development expenses and no collaboration revenue in the quarter. 2. **Increased Expenses and Revenue Shortfall**: The company's research and development expenses rose to $46.9 million from $8.0 million a year ago, driven by costs associated with the Phase 2b NAVIGATE trial for CD388. Additionally, there was a shortfall in collaboration revenue, which decreased to $0 from $2.8 million in the previous year. 3. **Cash Position and Financing Activities**: Despite the losses, Cidara Therapeutics ended 2024 with $196.2 million in cash and equivalents, which was bolstered by recent financing activities. This cash position is expected to support operations for at least one year. 4. **Earnings Forecast and Analyst Ratings**: Currently, there are no available data or forecasts for CDTX's Q1 2025 earnings. However, the analyst price forecast for Cidara Therapeutics suggests a 52.33% upside from the latest closing price, with an average one-year price target of $34.88. This suggests that the stock has potential for growth, but it does not necessarily indicate an optimistic earnings forecast for Q1 2025. 5. **Market Sentiment and Strategic Moves**: Citizens Capital Markets initiated coverage of Cidara Therapeutics with a Market Outperform recommendation, indicating a positive outlook. However, the market sentiment has been mixed, with shares falling 1.9% in after-hours trading following the earnings release. Additionally, the company's focus on ramping up spending on its influenza drug candidate CD388 suggests a strategic move that may impact short-term earnings negatively. In conclusion, while there is potential for growth as indicated by the analyst price forecast, the current financial performance and increased expenses suggest that CDTX's Q1 2025 earnings forecast is not optimistic. The company's strategic focus on drug development and the recent financing activities provide a basis for continued support, but the immediate outlook is tempered by the ongoing R&D investments and recent earnings shortfall.