How did CB's Q1 2025 EPS forecast compare to past trends?

Chubb's Q1 2025 EPS forecast of $3.42 is slightly below the company's historical average and recent trends, indicating a potential decline from the previous year's earnings. 1. **Comparison to Historical Averages**: - Chubb's annual basic EPS from 2010 to 2024 ranged from a low of $7.57 in 2011 to a high of $22.94 in 2024. - The Q1 2025 EPS forecast of $3.42 is below the average of $17.07 seen in the most recent twelve months ending Q1 2024. 2. **Trends Over the Past Few Years**: - Chubb experienced a significant increase in EPS from $7.83 in 2020 to $19.42 in 2021, a 147.86% rise. - However, there was a subsequent decline from $19.42 in 2021 to $12.47 in 2022, a 35.76% decrease. - The Q1 2025 EPS of $3.42 is also notably lower than the $6.40 reported for the quarter ending December 31, 2024, which was a 20.6% decline from the same quarter the previous year. 3. **Recent Analyst Estimates and Trends**: - Recent analyst estimates have been mixed, with some revisions downward, such as Roth Capital's reduction from $5.92 to $3.14. - However, other analysts like William Blair forecast $3.42, which is closer to the historical average. - The consensus for the full year 2025 earnings is $22.86 per share, which is above the Q1 forecast, suggesting that analysts expect stronger performance in the remaining quarters. 4. **Market Performance and Investor Sentiment**: - Chubb's stock has climbed by 9.05% in the past month, exceeding the Finance sector's loss. - The stock is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 13.81, which may indicate that the market is currently valuing the company's future earnings lower than recent historical averages. In conclusion, while Chubb's Q1 2025 EPS forecast is below the company's recent historical averages and the most recent quarter's earnings, it is important to consider the broader context of the full-year earnings estimates and the company's overall market performance and valuation.