Can CAKE's Q1 earnings beat forecasts again in 2025?

**The likelihood of The Cheesecake Factory's (CAKE) Q1 earnings beating forecasts in 2025 is low.** Here's why: 1. **Recent Performance and Challenges**: The Cheesecake Factory has recently faced challenges, including a negative mix impact of around 2% due to a decline in alcohol sales and a slight negative traffic. Despite positive outcomes, these challenges indicate a complex operating environment. 2. **Earnings Estimates Adjustments**: Both Wedbush and William Blair have adjusted their earnings estimates downward for Q1 2025. Wedbush has forecasted an EPS of $0.81, which is below the previous estimate, indicating a more cautious outlook. William Blair has estimated an EPS of $0.83 for Q1 2025, which also suggests a slightly lower expectation than the initial forecast. 3. **Expansion Plans and Revenue Projection**: The company's expansion plans for 2025, with a projection of 25 new restaurant openings, are ambitious but may not immediately translate to a significant earnings boost. The projected $3.8 billion in revenue from these openings represents a significant future opportunity, but it does not guarantee a strong Q1 performance. 4. **Market Sentiment and Guidance**: The sentiment from both analysts and management remains consistent, with a focus on growth and operational efficiencies. However, the adjustments in earnings estimates suggest that the market is cautious about the near-term performance of the company. In conclusion, while The Cheesecake Factory's long-term prospects appear positive with plans for expansion, the current earnings estimates and recent adjustments suggest that the company may not exceed market expectations in Q1 2025.