How do BURL's past earnings surprises guide future trades?

Burlington Stores' (BURL) past earnings surprises have shown mixed results, with varying short-to-medium-term performance following earnings beats or misses expectations: 1. **Earnings Beat Expectations**: - The 3-day win rate is 50%, indicating that half of the time, the stock price increases within three days after an earnings beat. - The 10-day win rate is higher at 64.29%, suggesting a greater probability of price appreciation in the ten days following an earnings beat. - However, the 30-day win rate is only 50%, and the maximum return observed was -4.00% over a 30-day period, indicating that while there is some potential for gains, there is also a significant risk of negative returns in the medium term. 2. **Earnings Miss Expectations**: - The 3-day win rate is 60%, which is higher than the beat expectations scenario, suggesting a slightly better short-term performance following an earnings miss. - The 10-day win rate is 40%, indicating a lower probability of price appreciation in the ten days following an earnings miss compared to the beat scenario. - The 30-day win rate is 60%, and the maximum return observed was 3.91% over a 30-day period, indicating a more favorable medium-term performance relative to the beat expectations scenario. In conclusion, while both earnings beat and miss expectations can lead to positive short-term returns, the overall performance guidance is not strongly one-sided. The variability in win rates and returns suggests that investors should exercise caution and consider the broader market context before making trading decisions based on earnings surprises.