How does BP's Q4 performance compare to peers?

BP's Q4 performance shows strong upstream growth and strategic shareholder returns, but margins and price-to-earnings ratios are lower than peers Exxon Mobil and Chevron, reflecting differing strategic focuses and market conditions. 1. **Upstream Production and Reliability**: - BP reported a 3% year-to-date increase in upstream production, with liquids production up 5%. Plant reliability was over 95%, and refining availability was over 96% for the quarter. - This contrasts with Exxon Mobil's Q4 2024 earnings, which included record production in Permian and Guyana, and record sales volumes of high-value products. Chevron's Q3 performance showed a strong revenue beat and a $3.5 billion buyback, with refined oil sales volumes increasing. 2. **Financial Performance and Dividends**: - BP's Q3 EPS was $0.68, indicating a 29.9% drop from the same quarter last year, with a revenue projection of $57.08 billion for the quarter, indicating a 14.25% increase year-over-year. For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates anticipate earnings of $3.22 per share and revenue of $241.39 billion, signifying shifts of -1.23% and +24.02%, respectively, from the last year. - In contrast, Exxon Mobil's Q1 2025 update shows higher crude oil and natural gas prices and better oil refining margins compared to Q4 2024, with an expected EPS of $1.72 for Q1 2025, up from $1.67 in Q4 2024. Chevron's Q4 earnings projection shows an expected EPS of $2.53, a 26.67% decrease from the same quarter last year, with a revenue estimate of $47.32 billion, up 0.3% year-over-year. - TotalEnergies has declared dividends of €0.79 ($0.82) per share, with an ex-dividend date of January 2, 2025. 3. **Strategic Direction and Market Position**: - BP's recent strategic shift back to oil and gas production contrasts with its previous ambition to cut hydrocarbon output by 40% this decade. This reflects market conditions and shareholder expectations. - Exxon Mobil and Chevron have maintained strong production volumes and have significant dividend yields, with Exxon Mobil distributing $36.0 billion to shareholders and Chevron offering a 4.49% dividend yield. - BP's chair, Helge Lund, is set to leave most likely in 2026, which could signal a transition in strategy or leadership. In summary, while BP shows strong growth in upstream production and a strategic shift towards shareholder returns, its margins and price-to-earnings ratios are lower than its peers due to differing strategic focuses and market conditions. Exxon Mobil and Chevron maintain strong production volumes and offer higher dividend yields, reflecting their established market positions and financial performance.